arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 9, 2026 — 12:39:57 EST
This short work describes an extension of the permanental process model which includes fixed effects. By starting with a prior on the fixed effects coefficients we show that, in the diffuse prior limit, the intensity function of the permanental process can be found using the representer theorem and naturally decomposed into a fixed...
Urban rail transit reliability is a critical measure of system performance, yet its causal determinants remain poorly quantified due to high-dimensional and interdependent influencing factors. This study investigates reliability patterns across 46 international metro operators between 1994 and 2024 using the CoMET benchmarking...
Compositional predictors, such as microbiome abundances, pose unique challenges in variable selection due to their unit-sum constraint and inherent dependencies. Existing approaches often rely on fixed association graphs derived from phylogenetic or ecological distances, which may not reflect outcome-relevant relationships. We propose...
Multi-armed bandit algorithms are evaluated by regret, yet comparable regret can coexist with different allocations across independent runs. We study the trade-off between worst-case regret $\mathcal{R}_{K,T}$ and instability $\mathcal S_{K,T}$, defined as the largest standard deviation of a terminal pull count, for $K$ arms and $T$...
Accurate building height information at the individual footprint scale is essential for material stock accounting and post-disaster damage assessments yet remains difficult to obtain at city scale in the Global South where airborne LiDAR coverage is rare and commercial very high-resolution imagery is cost-prohibitive or unavailable....
We develop blinded sample size re-estimation strategies for McNemar's test based on paired binary primary and secondary short-term surrogate endpoints. The development is motivated by a prospective randomized clinical trial on childhood glaucoma. A conditional power expression for McNemar's test given the primary endpoint at an...
Take three frontier mixture-of-experts models (Alibaba, OpenAI, NVIDIA; 3.6-4.0B active parameters each) and fine-tune them to reason in a low-resource language. On accuracy benchmarks almost nothing happens, and the benchmark itself is noise at this scale: changing only the random seed moves the score by 7.7 points, more than every...
Modern machine learning is leading to substantial gains in precision, flexibility, and computational efficiency in fundamental physics. Statistical validation, uncertainty quantification, and robustness assessment are less systematically addressed. The VERaiPHY initiative (Validation & Evaluation for Robust AI in PHYsics) is a series...
Spectral imaging provides chemically specific and spatially resolved analysis of microplastics, but its routine application is hindered by large data volumes, acquisition artefacts, spectral variability, and misidentification of polymers due to alike spectra. This study proposes a multi-level preprocessing and modelling framework for...
One-dimensional Gaussian processes with stationary, integrable kernel functions admit exact or arbitrarily accurate state-space representations, enabling linear-time inference through Kalman filtering and Rauch-Tung-Striebel (RTS) smoothing. However, the RTS smoother requires inversion of predicted state covariance matrices, which can...
In high-dimensional online prediction, the best predictor may depend on only a few features, so regret should scale with sparsity rather than the ambient dimension. Feature priming pursues this goal by estimating feature weights from past data and refitting a minimum-norm predictor on the rescaled design. Warmuth and Amid asked at...
Inverse learning within a statistical framework has a wide range of applications. It has garnered significant attention in machine learning, artificial intelligence, and related fields, where the goal is to infer unknown parameters from indirect and noisy observations. This work investigates the stable approximation of $u^{\dagger}$...
We study uniform sampling of binary matrices with fixed row and column sums, a recurring problem in ecological null models, Rasch-model testing, network analysis, and combinatorics. We propose the Snake algorithm, a rejection-free Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler that grows an alternating path until its first self-intersection and...
Regularized sparse regression has been extensively studied in the offline setting, but online formulation remains relatively under-explored. This gap stems from four key challenges: (i) the infeasibility of dynamically updating the regularization parameter in every online round, (ii) managing storage and memory complexity, (iii)...
Learning restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs) is computationally challenging because it requires expectations whose exact evaluation is generally intractable. The expectations are typically evaluated using a sampling approximation based on blocked Gibbs sampling (BGS), which is a local Markov chain Monte Carlo transition kernel....
Successive Difference Replication (SDR) is a replication based method of variance estimation introduced by Fay and Train (1995) for estimators based on complex multistage surveys, especially those including a final systematic sampling stage. The method has been used for many years as the primary variance-estimation methodology in...
Data-driven algorithm design frames hyperparameter tuning as a statistical learning problem, but establishing generalization guarantees remains challenging due to the implicit, non-smooth dependence of model performance on hyperparameters. Existing multi-dimensional bounds under piecewise-polynomial assumptions remain theoretically...
Modern probabilistic time-series forecasters often express uncertainty through forecast samples. While typically converted into nominal prediction regions using empirical quantiles, these model-implied sets lack formal coverage guarantees and frequently deviate from nominal targets under distribution shift. Existing multivariate...
In large-scale epidemiological studies, it is often of interest to investigate joint relationships between longitudinal and time-to-event outcomes with exposures that are trajectories or functions. Our motivation study is the Objective Physical Activity and Cardiovascular Health (OPACH) Study, which collected accelerometry-measured...
Large twist angles in twisted bilayer graphene are widely expected to be electronically trivial, with negligible interlayer coupling and no electronic reconstruction, in contrast to the rich moiré-driven band reconstruction and correlated physics that emerge at small twist angles. Here, we show that this paradigm breaks down near a...
We describe the upgraded Polarimeter using Imaging CMOS Sensor and Rotating Retarder 2 (PICSARR-2), describe its applications, and characterize its performance for stellar polarimetry on a 36-inch and 14-inch telescope. On the larger telescope in the SDSS $g^\prime$, $r^\prime$ and $i^\prime$ filters a precision of $σ_p=$ 5.7 ppm on...
Real-time simulations of interacting nanostructures coupled to fermionic reservoirs can require a growing number of environmental degrees of freedom to retain long-lived correlations. We introduce tape-recorder coarse graining, which reorganizes each noninteracting lead into incoming, active, and outgoing modes. The device is...
In this study, we use the Bayesian methods in the Enterprise package to examine the fully general parameterization of pulsar timing models in tandem with noise. We investigate four pulsars, PSR J1600$-$3053, PSR J2043+1711, PSR J0740+6620, and PSR J1640+2224, through the lens of Bayesian timing. These four are selected as they are...
As quantum processors scale to hundreds of qubits, execution speed is a critical performance dimension alongside scale and quality. While substantial progress has been made in benchmarking circuit fidelity, existing speed metrics often fail to reflect the sustained, end-to-end throughput experienced by users running utility-scale...
We study the dissipative dynamics of a Majorana tetron qubit in the presence of extrinsic quasiparticle poisoning due to the coupling to external leads. From the Bloch-Redfield equation describing a finite-size topological superconductor hosting four Majorana zero modes, we recover analytical expressions for the steady state, the...