arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 5, 2026 — 23:24:04 EST
When natural disasters strike, individuals, communities, and even entire countries can suffer. Researchers have studied the impacts of disasters on various factors of interest, from mental health, to poverty, to economic activity. However, the impact of disasters on the nonprofit sector is understudied despite the nonprofit sector's...
Cross-validation is a resampling procedure that provides a point estimate of generalization error for any predictive model. Cross-validation is widely used for model selection and evaluation. Uncertainty in the cross-validation estimate is challenging to quantify, and estimation of its variance is known to require multiple runs of the...
When a flexible prediction model is fitted on a training subsample drawn from a probability sample, the model-assisted estimator actually reported arises from one realized partition, yet existing theory quantifies uncertainty only for partition-averaged, cross-fitted, or symmetrized versions of it. We represent the training subsample...
Small Area Estimation (SAE) and Model-Based Geostatistics (MBG) provide complementary approaches to prevalence mapping, with their relative advantages depending on the inferential goals and characteristics of the available data. We argue that a fuller comparison should consider model interpretability, the role of epidemiologically...
We develop a parametric estimation framework for self-exciting Hawkes processes whose intensity functions admit a parametric form. The estimation procedure is based on ordinary least squares. To apply the least squares estimation, we restrict to a kernel class that can be expressed as a sum of the product of a parameter and a...
We introduce two new classes of nonparametric change-point tests for sequences of univariate non-negative random variables. The proposed procedures are based on the empirical modified Hankel transform and the Laplace transform, respectively, and provide new transform-based tools for detecting distributional changes. We derive the...
We present a framework for the analysis and unmixing of random density mixtures in the Bayes Hilbert space. General identifiability results for mixtures in Hilbert spaces are established and applied to the Bayes Hilbert space setting. Building on these results, we propose a penalised maximum likelihood approach for the unmixing of...
Mixture-of-experts (MoE) architectures increase model capacity by combining a collection of expert predictors through input-dependent routing, while often activating only a small subset of experts for each input. Despite their growing importance in modern large-scale models, the statistical roles of their design choices, especially...
Logit-based knowledge distillation for autoregressive language models usually aligns teacher and student next-token distributions over the entire vocabulary. However, this global objective overlooks relative preferences among likely token alternatives. Existing local approaches often select candidate tokens from either the teacher or...
We give an exact randomization-based confidence set for the average treatment effect (ATE) in matched-pair studies with a binary outcome, requiring neither monotonicity nor any distributional assumption beyond the within-pair coin flip. At its core is an analytic solution to the worst-case allocation of attributable effects: two...
Predicting fatigue life with quantified uncertainties is essential for the qualification of critical components produced by laser-based powder bed fusion additive manufacturing. We present a framework that propagates microstructure and defect uncertainties directly to a fatigue initiation life distribution for a specific part. In...
Several classical machine-learning methods, such as KRRs and SVRs, are both computationally and analytically tractable since their estimators either admit closed-form expressions or are obtained by minimizing convex training objectives; neither feature is generally available for deep neural networks. We address this by introducing a...
The existing multimarker survival tests focus on time to event outcomes. However, recurrent events are common in real world clinical and biomedical studies, especially in the research of chronic and recurrent diseases. In this paper, we develop a suite of set based genetic association tests for panel count outcomes under a unified...
Conformal risk control is an emerging framework for the safe deployment of machine learning models with finite-sample guarantees. To accommodate a broader class of risk notions, quantile risk control extends this framework to quantile-based risk measures. However, existing methods either suffer from excessive conservatism or lack...
We propose a framework for estimating conditional extreme quantile treatment effects (CEQTEs) in observational studies with heavy-tailed outcomes. Our procedure first estimates intermediate conditional quantiles using inverse-probability-weighted (IPW) quantile regression and then extrapolates them to extreme levels using extreme...
Selective measurement of predictors is common in routinely collected health data. We used nested prediction models as a framework for characterising the consequences of a selectively measured predictor, with a restricted model defined in the target population and an extended model including the selectively measured predictor defined...
Generative models have been studied experimentally and theoretically as priors for inverse problems such as compressed sensing. Recent work by Gunn et al. studied the use of generative priors with tunable complexity, where a family of generative priors with varying complexity is maintained and a specific complexity can be selected at...
Detecting when the dependence between two components of a multivariate time series changes, while the marginals drift freely, requires a dependence-specific statistic. We take the inferential object to be a density operator -- the trace-normalised second moment of unit-norm random Fourier features of ranks -- rather than a probability...
In the presence of interference, where the treatment assigned to one unit can affect the outcomes of others, many causal estimands depend on the treatment-assignment policy under which the experiment is conducted. This policy dependence creates a fundamental challenge for off-policy estimation, where the goal is to estimate causal...
We study when and how momentum improves large-batch training in the one-pass regime, using power-law kernel regression as a tractable setting. We first characterize risk stability through the critical learning rate, defined as the largest learning rate for stable training, and obtain $η_{\mathrm{SGD}}^{\mathrm{crit}}\eqsim 1$,...
A central challenge in distributional regression is to allow the shape of the conditional distribution of the response variable to vary flexibly with covariates while retaining directly interpretable effects on its mean and standard deviation. We extend the penalized transformation model (PTM) family into a conditional-shape PTM,...
Clinical trials often show treatment curves that diverge early and converge later, or vice versa patterns that are poorly captured by the proportional-hazards assumption. We develop a joint inferential framework for two nonparametric functionals of censored survival data: the Kaplan--Meier-based Mann--Whitney effect and a novel...
Process-based forest models are widely used to simulate forest growth and responses to environmental change, but their calibration and application often require many computationally expensive model evaluations. We present an implementation of the Physiological Processes Predicting Growth (3-PG) model in JAX that uses just-in-time...
The novel Frankenstein was published anonymously in 1818, and was first credited to Mary Shelley in a French translation of 1821. Since its publication, several claims - both contemporaneous and recent - have been made suggesting that Frankenstein was actually written by Mary's husband, Percy Bysshe Shelley. We review the background...
Differential privacy (DP) has emerged in the computer science literature as a measure of the impact on an individual's privacy resulting from the publication of a statistical output such as a frequency table. This paper provides an introduction to DP for official statisticians and discuss its relevance, benefits, and challenges from a...