arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 10, 2026 — 00:07:30 EST
Investors interpret social disclosures from a risk perspective, yet relevant information can reach them through channels that differ sharply in regulatory enforcement and materiality: SEC filings, sustainability reports, or financial reports. We analyse how social disclosure via each channel relates to idiosyncratic risk. Studying S&P...
This paper develops a unit-consistent actuarial framework for pricing capped cumulative temperature-index insurance under long-range dependence and stochastic variability. Daily temperature anomalies are modeled as increments of fractional Brownian motion evaluated at an operational time generated by the integral of a stationary...
Human capital is a central organizational input, but standard financial data reveal little about firm-specific disruptions to workforce availability, cost, skills, and continuity. I construct a measure of disclosed human-capital disruption from earnings calls using author-defined coding criteria and a contextual language model. Within...
Most digital job-search assistance encourages unemployed workers to broaden their search toward related occupations, targeting one important source of search inefficiency: insufficient occupational diversification. Our analysis suggests that the relevant margin of adjustment depends on the underlying search problem. Building on a...
Job seekers' expectations about reemployment are increasingly used to study job search, but what their biases reveal about underlying beliefs and preferences is ambiguous. We combine new survey data, structural modeling, and machine learning to uncover the informational content of these expectations and show how they can be used to...
This paper analyzes when choice probabilities reveal rankings of deterministic utility indices in semiparametric discrete choice models. It begins with binary choice, where quantile thresholds guarantee ranking recovery, and shows that such thresholds can arise either from behavioral departures from utility maximization (e.g., limited...
Motivated by modern marketplaces, where the platform or the seller routinely gathers detailed user profiles, we study a novel learning theoretic model that simultaneously involves information and mechanism design. Specifically, we consider the economic setting recently introduced by Bergemann et al. (2022), where in addition to the...
This paper studies how robust social learning is when sampling is selective, i.e., some types of actions are more likely to be sampled by successors. We show that Bayesian agents can achieve asymptotic learning despite non-expanding observations, because the endogenous observation network itself carries information and agents have...
Empirical studies of peer effects often exploit conditional random assignment to peer groups within urns. We develop a GMM framework for estimation and inference in this setting. The framework separately identifies endogenous and contextual peer effects and nests tests of random peer-group assignment as a special case. It permits...
We ask whether COVID-19 lockdown stringency altered national Olympic performance between Rio 2016 and Tokyo 2020, using the Oxford Stringency Index and the 99 countries that won a medal in either edition. As in \citet{liu2024}, mean performance is unaffected: stringency is insignificant in every OLS and ANOVA specification. The...
We study the existence of a \emph{Regional Differential} in rugby sevens: whether, in tournaments where no competing team enjoys formal home status, some national sides systematically over- or under-perform depending on \emph{where} the event is staged. Using the universe of 2672 men's and women's matches from international rugby...
Research activity generates highly localized positive spillovers, yet in the U.S. it has become increasingly spatially misaligned with population and economic activity as people moved away from legacy cities where major research institutions remain anchored. Reallocating researchers toward population centers could broaden local access...
We design a method for measuring the risk preferences of agents in the deep past. The method combines a structural model of crop choice as a portfolio allocation with machine-learning prediction of expected crop returns, using historic agronomic and climate data. We estimate county-level risk preferences for the United States and...
We study how many observations are needed to determine the causal direction between two linearly related variables. Classical LiNGAM theory shows that independent non-Gaussian disturbances identify the direction, but does not quantify the difficulty when the causal effect is weak or the disturbances are nearly Gaussian. Let $β$ bound...
In Shapley-Scarf housing markets, Ma (1994) shows that top trading cycles (TTC) is the unique mechanism satisfying individual rationality (IR), Pareto efficiency (PE), and strategy-proofness. We ask what other mechanisms become possible when strategy-proofness is replaced by a weaker condition called non-obvious manipulability (NOM),...
Route and activity choice are connected levels of a common sequential mobility decision problem: activity choice determines what people do, where, and when, while route choice governs how they move between activities. This review develops a unified framework connecting transportation choice modeling with inverse reinforcement learning...
We propose a family of control variate estimators for variance reduction in design-based survey sampling and causal inference, with and without interference. In these settings, inverse probability weighting (IPW) estimators are widely used, but may have large variance when sampling, treatment, or exposure probabilities are small....
Neurofinance shows that financial valuation depends on evolving neural states, while temporal experience is itself state dependent. Yet intertemporal models typically treat time as exogenous and ask how delay affects valuation. This paper examines the converse question: can valuation-related neural dynamics generate subjective...
This paper proposes a metric approach to measuring the complexity of lotteries. Starting by observing that degenerate lotteries are the simplest choice alternatives, the complexity of a lottery is evaluated by its distance from the closest degenerate lottery. Equivalently, a lottery is complex when it is difficult to approximate it by...
We formulate the voter's strategic information acquisition to control the future self's action as a Bayesian persuasion problem. Our main result shows that acquiring information that is irrelevant to the voter's objective can be a worst-case optimal solution: it can reduce the possibility that the future self is swayed by additional...
Identifying and representing object instances such as cells or nuclei is a common task in microscopy image analysis. Established machine learning workflows typically use supervised detection or segmentation followed by feature extraction or classification, which requires manual annotations and treats instance segmentation and cell...
Componentwise weak convergence of signed synaptic kernels does not, by itself, determine the fast-synapse limit of a sparse threshold-reset network. Within a causal event protocol with clamped refractoriness and smooth positive-delay kernels, we construct two families whose excitatory and inhibitory measures converge weakly to $δ_0$...
Large language models can describe mechanisms, yet scalable post-training still depends on costly, manually curated biological reasoning traces. Here we show that cellular perturbation atlases can instead become reinforcement-learning environments, where measured gene responses provide computable rewards for biological reasoning. We...
Longitudinal symptom networks encode directed prediction across measurement occasions, but outgoing connectivity does not by itself identify which symptom should be modified, how strongly it should be changed, or how a perturbation would propagate to later symptoms. We introduce tSymPerturb, a temporal extension of SymPerturb for...
Lifelong learning requires acquiring new knowledge without erasing the old. Yet neural population codes for familiar stimuli and behaviors change over days and weeks. This coexistence of stable memory and changing internal codes may depend on how a learning system prevents forgetting. We therefore tested whether different...