arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 11, 2026 — 22:00:36 EST
We develop a general framework of identification and estimation for automatic debiased machine learning (DML) where the parameter of interest $θ_0$ is identified by a moment condition involving a nuisance $γ_0$ that may be high dimensional. We establish conditions under which the Riesz representer $α_0$, which is at the core of DML,...
This paper studies the willingness-to-accept/willingness-to-pay (WTA-WTP) gap under objective probabilities. Preferences over finite lotteries satisfy completeness, transitivity, continuity, weak independence, reference partition, and range dependence. Weak independence requires von Neumann-Morgenstern independence only for mixtures...
This paper characterizes a class of twice continuously differentiable objective-probability preference representations exhibiting endogenous reference dependence under risk. Weak rank-dependent utility (WRDU) preserves objective probabilities, partitions outcomes at an endogenous reference point, and evaluates lotteries through a...
A red herring, an irrelevant passage added to a problem, corrupts a language model's reasoning and, through it, its final answer, while the form of the response survives untouched. The benchmark, called the Graduate Economic Reasoning Benchmark (GERB), is sixty graduate-level microeconomics problems, each a detailed setup with a...
OpenMarket began as an attempt to trade Polymarket's BTC 15-minute binary markets against Binance BTC/USDT order flow. The attempt did not produce a tradable edge: out-of-sample, a walk-forward logistic model over 43 microstructure features does not beat, and slightly underperforms, the probability already implied by Polymarket's own...
Every widely followed Bitcoin cycle indicator (Pi Cycle, MVRV, Mayer, Puell) called turns precisely for a decade, then degraded in one sequence: precise, then early, then silent. This is one structural phenomenon. Across the four halving epochs (2011-2026), the per-cycle maxima of five top-calling oscillators decline monotonically...
Language models increasingly settle real resource tradeoffs on behalf of principals yet their economic preferences remain unobserved. We demonstrate their generation rule is isomorphic to the random utility model of discrete choice. This allows internal logit scores to structurally identify preferences. Estimating risk attitudes...
Why do some teams consistently mobilize collective effort and achieve superior performance while others struggle to coordinate action? We introduce Attention-Directing Ability (ADA), a latent team capability capturing how effectively members' interaction signals elicit engagement and coordinated responses from others. Extending the...
Economic stability and progress in modern technological societies depend on vigorous and independent public funding of science and engineering research. When peer review or funding decisions are perceived as politically directed, scientists, funding agencies, and the public react in coupled and conflicting ways. We an evolutionary...
Our main results are an upper bound on the asymptotic resurgence of the facet ideal of a graphic matroid in terms of the number of vertices and a lower bound in terms of the circumference. These bounds coincide for Hamiltonian graphs, which form the majority of graphs on $n$ vertices as $n$ tends to infinity. For simple $2$-connected...
We propose a stabilized version of the fully discrete Dziuk's method for the curve-shortening flow of a closed planar curve with piecewise linear parametric finite elements. With a carefully designed stabilization term, we are able to show a surprising discrete tangential stability of the Barrett--Garcke--Nürnberg (BGN) type under the...
Let $G$ be an automatic group with associated regular language $L$. We describe a procedure for constructing an automaton which recognises elements of a given submonoid or rational subset $K$ of $G$. This builds on work of Kharlampovich, Miasnikov and Weil, on the case where $K$ is a subgroup of $G$. Our construction succeeds, after...
Paths $X \colon [0,T] \to \mathbb R^d$ are traditionally stored in finite memory as time series. Recent research has underscored the benefits of instead representing them as collections of iterated integrals $\{\int_{0 < u_1 < \ldots < u_n < T} \mathrm{d} X_{u_1} \otimes \cdots \otimes \mathrm{d} X_{u_n}\}_{n = 0}^N$. These two...
In low-rank numerical methods for Vlasov dynamics, the SVD-type truncation procedure may introduce negative entries into the numerical solution. Such negative values are unphysical because the solution is a probability distribution function. We design optimization-based post-processing algorithms to recover nonnegativity while...
We find sharp upper bounds for the initial higher-order Schippers-Schwarzian derivatives $σ_3(f)(0)$ and $σ_4(f)(0)$ for several subclasses of univalent and starlike functions in the unit disk. The functions in these classes are defined by subordination to domains bounded by an exponential-sine curve, a cardioid, or a petal-shaped...
It was asked in [ACTT23] if every faithful, discrete, ergodic pmp action of a mixed identity-free (MIF) group is essentially free. In this short note we give some positive evidence by showing that for a MIF group, any faithful generalized Bernoulli action and any affine action on a compact abelian group is essentially free. This gives...
The problems of characterizing the graphs $G$ which are generically rigid in ${\mathbb R}^d$, or more generally, determining the rank function of the $d$-dimensional rigidity matroid ${\cal R}_d(G)$ of an arbitrary graph $G$, have been solved when $d\leq 2$ but are major open problems in discrete geometry when $d\geq 3$. In this paper...
This paper has several parts. We begin by developing a theory of `piecewise (strong) f-genericity' in NIP groups, where we call a definable set piecewise (strong) f-generic if some union of finitely many translates of it is (strong) f-generic. We show that, in an NIP group, the definable sets that are not piecewise (strong) f-generic...
Oscillatory inverse problems often exhibit highly nonconvex discrepancy landscapes due to signal misalignment and cycle-skipping phenomena, posing significant challenges for uncertainty quantification. While Gibbs posteriors provide a flexible framework for incorporating problem-specific discrepancy measures, their performance depends...
We propose a stochastic model of sea spray as a shot noise process attached to a homogeneous Poisson process whose intensity measure is the sea spray generation function, that is to say the average number of droplets of a given radius ejected into the atmosphere per unit area per unit time. We assume the impulse response function...
The Word Problem has been a subject of intensive mathematical study for over a century, initially driving advances in combinatorial group theory and more recently emerging as a foundational hardness assumption in post-quantum cryptography (PQC). While generally undecidable, several families of infinite non-abelian groups exhibit...
In this paper, we study Ricci solitons on the three-dimensional solvable Lie group $\mathrm{Sol}^{3}_{m,n}$ equipped with a left-invariant Riemannian metric, viewed as a generalization of the classical $\mathrm{Sol}^{3}$ geometry. We investigate harmonic maps, harmonic sections, and geodesic curves, including the geodesic properties...
Featuring Hessian-driven damping, two inertial primal dual dynamical systems are proposed for solving smooth saddle point problems with bilinear coupling. For convex-concave functions, we establish a convergence rate $\mathcal{O}\left( \frac{1}{t^2} \right)$ for the primal dual gap; for strongly convex-strongly concave functions, we...
Diffusion MRI (dMRI) relies on diffusion-weighted echo-planar imaging, which is highly susceptible to eddy-current-induced geometric distortions. These distortions vary across diffusion volumes according to gradient strength and direction, causing between-volume misalignment that can bias downstream microstructural analyses. Current...
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as general-purpose translation systems, but their behavior is usually evaluated under a single prompt shape: translate one source sentence into one target language. In practice, users may ask for one target language, for several related languages at once, or for translations...