arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 11, 2026 — 18:16:36 EST
A Bayesian network framework is proposed for modelling unit-bounded continuous variables using conditional beta-distributed nodes within a fully Bayesian inference setting. The model captures conditional dependencies and propagates uncertainty through the network, with inference performed via Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods...
Statistical modeling for goals scored in football is typically achieved using the Poisson distribution and its variants. Here we propose a Bayesian framework for modeling under- and over-dispersion in count data by combining the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (CMP) likelihood with a spikeand-slab (SAS) prior on unit-specific dispersion...
TabPFN is a transformer-based foundation model for tabular prediction that performs inference without task-specific training by conditioning on a support set and query inputs. Despite its strong empirical performance, its internal behavior on structurally difficult tabular geometries remains poorly understood. We study this behavior...
Electronic health record (EHR) networks provide unprecedented opportunities to study treatment mechanisms at scale, but mediation analyses across institutions are often hindered by privacy and governance constraints that restrict sharing of patient-level data. We developed a privacy-preserving federated mediation framework that...
Importance splitting (ISPLIT) evaluates the probabilities of rare events in non-Markovian models. It requires a heuristic importance function (IFUN) that estimates the distance to the target. While including timer evaluations in the IFUN can substantially improve the effectiveness of ISPLIT, the existing time-sensitive IFUNs evaluate...
High-stakes decisions in oncology clinical trials must often be made while survival data remains immature: progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) are heavily censored, few events have accumulated, and the primary endpoint may be months or years from reading out. What is available at interim data cut-offs is...
Many prediction and decision-making problems in operations research involve path-valued covariates -- data that evolve over time -- for which path signatures have become a canonical feature representation. Their use is justified by a universal approximation theorem, but this is an existence result: it guarantees that a finite-level...
The conditional randomization test (CRT) provides a principled approach to conditional independence (CI) testing, guaranteeing exact type-I error control when the true conditional distribution is known. In practice, however, this distribution must be estimated, and estimation errors can inflate type-I errors, while high dimensionality...
Nonlinear state estimation under structural model uncertainty remains a central challenge in autonomous Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC) systems. Classical estimators propagate states using assumed dynamics and incorporate measurements through posterior correction, which under mismatch leads to biased innovations, estimator...
Missing data and confounding are common in real-world statistical applications, yet few studies have examined how imputation methods perform under time-varying confounding in binary variables, or how missingness mechanism, missing rate, missingness location and sample size jointly affect performance and the underlying identifiability...
Network meta-regression (NMR) extends network meta-analysis (NMA) by synthesizing evidence on multiple treatments while adjusting for potential effect modifiers. By accounting for effect modification, NMR can reduce between-study heterogeneity and improve the validity of relative treatment effects, providing insight regarding...
The skew-symmetric discretisation has recently been proposed as a new robust simulation method for weakly approximating stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with non-globally Lipschitz drift. This work develops a pathwise version of the scheme by representing the noise increment as a skew-normal distribution and coupling it with...
We develop an adjoint-sensitivity framework for positional influence in causal residual Transformers and separate unconditional analytic results from conditional boundary-shape conclusions. The principal unconditional theorem is the residual-to-depth-flow estimate for layer controls converging in $L^1$, complemented by a...
Adaptive enrichment can allow the development of an experimental treatment to continue when its activity is insufficient in an all-comer population but remains promising in a prespecified biomarker-positive subgroup. However, a straightforward sequential application of separately calibrated phase II designs to the two populations can...
The shape and arrangement of particles in a material determine its macroscopic properties. The generation of synthetic data with varying particle structure, often represented as 3D voxel images, combined with simulation of macroscopic properties reveals structure-property relations. Most particle generation models focus on...
This is an invited commentary on the Psychometrika focus article "Fairness Issues and Evaluation in Psychometrics and AI/ML: What Can We Learn from Each Field?" by Ying Cheng (2026, doi:10.1017/psy.2026.10110). Cheng offers a systematic comparison between long-standing test fairness and modern algorithmic fairness. Her mapping of the...
Multidimensional graded response models (MGRMs) are widely used for analyzing ordinal questionnaire data in psychological and educational assessments. A central challenge in applying these models is determining the number of latent dimensions. Conventional approaches usually fit multiple fixed-dimensional models and select among them...
We study whether stochastic nonconvex optimization can be reduced to ordinary static regret minimization in online convex optimization in a black-box manner. For smooth nonconvex objectives, our reduction maintains a predictable gradient tracker, while a black-box online learner selects a preconditioner that determines how this...
Spatially embedded directed networks, such as airline networks, often exhibit simultaneous high activity at nearby nodes. Preferential attachment (PA) explains hub dominance. We extend it to spatial co-movement through a directed PA model whose out- and in-node weights follow temporally persistent Gaussian-process lognormal fields....
Multiverse analysis refers to a common situation where one wishes to assess the association between multiple possible treatment definitions and multiple possible outcome definitions, potentially within multiple sub-populations, among other possible analysis specifications. Multiverse analysis is a useful exploratory tool to assess...
A family $\mathcal{F}$ of subsets of $[n] := \{1,2,\ldots, n\}$ is called maximal $k$-wise intersecting if every collection of at most $k$ members of $\mathcal{F}$ has a non-empty intersection, and adding any other set to $\mathcal{F}$ breaks this property. An old question by Erdős and Kleitman from 1974 asks for the minimum size of a...
Given $n,m\in\mathbb{N}$ such that $n\ge2m\ge4$, letting $g$ be a conformally Euclidean metric on $\mathbb{R}^n$, we consider the question of positivity of the lower-order $Q$-curvatures $Q_g^{(2k)}$ for $k\in\left\{1,\dotsc,m-1\right\}$ when $Q_g^{(2m)}$ is assumed to be nonnegative and not identically zero. We assume moreover that...
We consider the problem of finding the root vertex of a random uniform attachment tree, when the union of the unlabeled tree and an Erdős-Rényi random graph $\mathbb{G}(n,p)$ is observed. We prove that, as long as $p=o(\log n /n)$, for any $\varepsilon>0$, one can construct a confidence set of vertices of size $K(\varepsilon)$ that...
In this work, we study small-noise asymptotics of risk-sensitive exit-time control problems governed by stochastic differential equations with path-dependent coefficients. Our main result establishes the convergence of the $\log$-transformed exit-time problem to a deterministic control problem with path-dependent coefficients. For its...
We study the small-regularization limit for $L^p$-regularized optimal transport with $1<p<\infty$ and for entropically regularized optimal transport (EOT). The exact first-order (respectively, second-order) asymptotics are determined explicitly under mild assumptions on the source and target measures. Our work generalizes the existing...