arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 8, 2026 — 04:59:04 EST
This paper develops a procedure for uncovering the common cyclical factors that drive a mix of stationary and nonstationary variables. The method does not require knowing which variables are nonstationary or the nature of the nonstationarity. An application to the FRED-MD macroeconomic dataset demonstrates that the approach offers...
Green-patent indicators based on Cooperative Patent Classification Y02 tags increasingly inform research, industrial policy, and climate-oriented investment, yet their construct validity has not been evaluated at corpus scale. We ask whether Y02 classification errors are random measurement noise or systematic, direction-specific bias....
In this work, we investigate rapid prediction of the dominant $n{=}0$ vertical instability growth rate in C-Mod and SPARC equilibria, where nonrigid free boundary response models are too slow for control cycle use. Using a Physics Attention Transformer trained on MEQ-FGE-L labels, we predict both the scalar growth rate and the...
How can humans make sense of the rapid takeoff of artificial intelligence (AI)? We studied the sensemaking dynamics of AI through an open-ended, mixed-methods study with computational text analysis of millions of AI-related newspaper articles and social media posts grounded in 57 semi-structured interviews with AI professionals in...
We settle the minimax-optimal alternating regret, a regret notion motivated by alternating learning dynamics in games, for both online linear optimization (OLO) and online convex optimization (OCO). For OLO over the probability simplex $Δ_d$, we give an algorithm with $O(\log d)$ alternating regret that remains a constant for any...
Retinal fundus photography is widely used for screening and monitoring ocular diseases, but many modern classification pipelines rely on deep latent representations and provide limited interpretability. This study develops an interpretable fundus image classification framework based on a ring-structured representation of the retinal...
Probabilistic models of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) with latent variables impose equality constraints on the observed data distribution beyond ordinary conditional independencies. These so-called Verma constraints arise in nested Markov models associated with Acyclic Directed Mixed Graphs, the latent projection of latent-variable...
The embedding dimension of categorical predictors is usually selected through heuristic tuning, although it directly affects model complexity, approximation quality, and finite-sample generalization. This paper formulates embedding dimension selection as a constrained allocation problem. The main contribution is to show that embedding...
The STAR (Student-Teacher Achievement Ratio) experiment (1985, Tennessee, USA) is a landmark hierarchical dataset designed to assess the impact of class size on student outcomes, with observations nested within classes. To encode class-level interventions in such hierarchical settings, we develop a complete, scalable, open-source...
We introduce a novel latent space network model for analyzing multivariate time series of neural spike-train data. The methodology is motivated by an experimental study in mice, where neuronal responses were collected under a sequence of visual discrimination tasks. We adopt a latent variable framework to model the firing rates of...
Learning operators from sequentially collected data arises in adaptive experimental design, Bayesian optimization, and dynamical-system modelling, where observations may be dependent, and future inputs or sensing operators may depend on preceding data. We derive time-uniform self-normalized concentration bounds for stochastic...
Envelope methods improve estimation efficiency in multivariate analysis by isolating low-dimensional structures that contain all the information material to the parameter of interest. In multivariate linear regression with random predictors, predictor envelope models achieve this goal by removing variation in the predictors that is...
Cox regression with Lasso penalization is widely used for variable selection in time-to-event data, but reliable coefficient inference after selection remains difficult. We investigate bootstrap inference for the debiased Cox estimator after Cox Lasso selection. Two score-based procedures are considered: a wild bootstrap using...
Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models provide a flexible framework for partitioning complex prediction problems into simpler local learning tasks through an input-dependent gating mechanism. Existing interpretable MoE approaches, such as Mixture of Decision Trees (MoDT), achieve transparency by employing homogeneous decision-tree experts,...
Many time series are not stable over their full observation horizon, but may contain scientifically meaningful periods during which a signal remains stable up to a prescribed tolerance. We formulate this as an existence test for stable intervals in a non-stationary regression model with dependent, locally stationary errors. For a...
In reinforcement learning policy evaluation, classic on-policy methods often suffer from high variance when estimating policy performance. To mitigate this issue, behavior policy search has been proposed to learn data-collecting policies tailored to reduce online evaluation variance. However, these approaches do not account for...
Numerous methods have been developed to quantify feature attributions in individual predictions for tree ensembles. However, many applications require global measures of feature contributions to overall model performance. Although local attribution scores can be aggregated to characterize feature importance, such summaries do not...
Current LLM agent systems decide delegation before reasoning begins (a router picks a model) or after a response is complete (a verifier scores it and may retry). We study a third regime: an agent that recognises, during its own reasoning, that it is unlikely to succeed and transfers control to a stronger model. We formulate...
Individualized treatment rules (ITRs) map baseline characteristics to treatment recommendations, with the optimal ITR maximizing expected reward or policy welfare. Indirect methods may require restrictive modeling assumptions, whereas direct methods can be sensitive to nuisance estimation error and limited overlap. We propose...
Controlled-experiment Using Pre-Experiment Data (CUPED) reduces the variance of the treatment effect estimator in online experiments by adjusting the in-experiment outcome metric using its lagged pre-experiment value. This method can be strengthened by enriching its covariate set while keeping it automatable and guarding against...
Time series classification underpins applications in healthcare, sensing, and industrial monitoring. Although time series foundation models support forecasting and transferable representation learning, classification still typically requires fitting a task-specific classifier on each target dataset, while individual channels of...
Understanding how neural networks learn and organize features is central to understanding their behavior. Much existing theory of feature learning has focused on the emergence of a global low-dimensional predictive geometry. We show that this picture is incomplete. In regression problems with clustered data, we demonstrate that...
Modified treatment policies (MTPs) are interventions based on each individual's natural treatment value. We study mean outcomes under MTPs for continuous treatments, including exposure mixtures. Positivity is the standard sufficient condition for identifying these mean outcomes without extrapolation: policy-generated values remain...
The classical radiation-pressure instability predicts strong thermal variability in luminous black-hole accretion disks, whereas most disk-dominated X-ray binary soft states remain comparatively stable. We examine whether net vertical magnetic flux can weaken this instability through its contribution to the radial stress. The...
The $GW$ approximation is the standard tool for quasiparticle predictions in materials, yet its regime of validity in correlated systems remains poorly quantified, because \textit{ab initio} vertex corrections are computationally prohibitive. Using exact diagonalization of the half-filled extended Hubbard model on finite rings as a...