arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 9, 2026 — 19:36:30 EST
Environmental conditions are major drivers of malaria transmission, but epidemiological analyses are often constrained by temporal misalignment between health outcomes reported at coarse time scales and environmental exposures available at finer resolutions. Conventional approaches aggregate environmental data to match health...
Timely, paddock-scale estimates of plant-available water (PAW) can support crop management in water-limited grain systems. We present the Sydney Soil Water-Energy Balance (SWEB) model, a scalable, physically consistent modelling framework that integrates satellite and climate data with soil properties to estimate crop...
Probability estimation over large alphabets under log loss is a well-studied problem, with celebrated methods such as the Good-Turing estimator. We introduce and study a new Bayesian estimator with four notable properties. First, its construction is exceptionally simple: multiply independent uniform draws from the probability simplex...
In fixed-confidence best-arm identification, proofs often use a union bound across the competing arms. From a multiple-testing point of view this can look puzzling: if the best arm is unique, only one hypothesis of the form ``arm $i$ is best'' can be true. Why then should there be a Bonferroni-type factor of $K-1$? The answer is that...
This document describes the application of a first order linearised nonlinear repeated measurements approach to the analysis of battery cell ageing profiles generated under controlled conditions in a laboratory. The primary advantage of the model is it reflects the obvious structure in the data. Consequently, it is a two-component of...
We study a function-on-function linear regression model in which the response at time $t$ depends on both the past trajectory of a predictor and its concurrent value. The model combines an $L^2$-historical effect with a point-evaluation effect, and these two coefficient functions are not automatically identifiable. We characterize the...
We develop a partial identification learning framework for individualized treatment rules (ITRs) with categorical treatments, outcomes, and instrumental variables. Rather than relying on strong causal assumptions required for point identification, our framework leverages causal bounds to characterize the optimal treatment decision....
Predicting combinatorial effects from limited-range observations is a fundamental challenge in many scientific domains, including drug discovery and hyperparameter optimization. We study combinatorial extrapolation, where training data consists of axis-aligned samples with only one active covariate, while test-time inputs involve...
Reliability set estimation identifies input regions where a response probability exceeds a target level, bridging estimation and safety-critical decisions. Practitioners typically start with a working model, an imperfect approximation of the true response surface. Relying on this imperfect model may incur decision risk, potentially...
Instrumental variable (IV) methods are powerful for causal effect estimation with unmeasured confounding, but in practice researchers often face a set of candidate IVs whose validity is difficult to determine from observational data. This paper studies the problem of testing the validity of IV sets under Causal Additive Models with...
Skchange is an open-source Python library for detecting structural changes in time series. It implements modern change detection algorithms within a unified and extensible framework. The algorithms are modular and composable, and they include changepoint search methods based on both cost minimisation and statistical tests. Key...
A minibatch can influence training beyond the update at which it is observed because AdamW stores past gradient information in its optimizer states. We study this delayed effect through paired trajectories that differ only in one gradient update and share the same subsequent training sequence. We formulate AdamW as a finite-horizon...
We study heterogeneous treatment-effect (HTE) estimation in observational survival studies commonly associated with both censored outcomes and unmeasured confounding. We integrate causal survival forests (CSF) with negative controls (NC) from proximal causal inference and introduce Negative Control Causal Survival Forests (NC-CSF), a...
Predictive models over structured electronic health records (EHRs) remain central to machine learning for healthcare, but few have jointly emphasized quantitative laboratory information and interpretability with respect to input medical events. We present BERT-LER, a BERT-style model for coded EHR timelines pretrained and fine-tuned...
Mid-training is increasingly recognized as a critical stage for shaping the capabilities of large language models. Recent work has shown that targeted mid-training can strengthen reasoning-intensive abilities such as math and science, and can also improve agentic capabilities in software-engineering settings. In this work, we study...
The capability to perceive and synthesize human-human interactions is fundamental to developing intelligent digital human systems. However, existing datasets and modeling approaches are fundamentally constrained by low-fidelity kinematics, the omission of dexterous hand gestures and a severe lack of rich multimodal annotations....
Egocentric video offers scalable manipulation data for embodied AI, yet recovering metric 3D hand trajectories remains challenging due to severe object occlusion and frequent out-of-sight gaps. Existing single-frame and windowed temporal regressors fail when hand shortly leaves the frame, while recent video diffusion models (VDMs)...
Myocardial scar segmentation from single-stack late gadolinium-enhanced cardiac magnetic resonance (LGE-CMR) imaging has been a longstanding and clinically important challenge, particularly in the presence of low tissue contrast, diffuse, and small scar regions. These challenges are further intensified by the limited availability of...
Whether a language model has improved itself is increasingly judged not by mean accuracy but by which individual problems it gains and loses. Tracking these transitions means differencing two noisy estimates, leaving them vulnerable to measurement artifacts. Auditing three rounds of rank-$32$ LoRA self-training on Qwen3-8B against a...
We introduce the honeycomb hierarchy, a representation-theoretic framework that gives new asymptotic upper bounds on $R_2(δ)$. Its first level is the two-row hyperoctahedral representation graph associated with type $S^{(n-k,k)}$. Retaining every two-row irreducible and every coordinate box-transfer channel, together with a...
The causal dynamics of sleep-disordered breathing are complex and vary across patient populations, hindering the development of targeted interventions. We learn dynamic causal graphs of sleep-disordered breathing from Home Sleep Apnea Test (HSAT) recordings, revealing systematic differences in causal structure across sex and age...
Reliable surgical planning requires models to anticipate not only how instruments will move, but also how the operative visual state will evolve together with such motion. Existing approaches typically treat future scene generation and instrument trajectory prediction as two separate tasks. Scene-only models cannot directly evaluate...
Earth observation (EO) programmes generate data at volumes that exceed the transfer and storage capacity of most institutional networks. Public cloud platforms address this for well-resourced organisations, but institutions across the Atlantic basin face constraints in connectivity, sovereignty and funding that make on-premises...
Large language models often fail to answer questions about a bounded document collection when the source documents are not retrieved at inference time. We study this setting as document knowledge internalization: converting a fixed corpus into usable parametric knowledge for retrieval-free question answering. We propose IAR (Inject,...
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic highlighted the ongoing risk infectious diseases pose to society and the value of reliable information on the likely future burden. When forecasting an epidemic at fine spatial resolution, traditionally used mechanistic compartmental model struggle to capture highly complex granular transmission dynamics,...