arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 5, 2026 — 10:13:46 EST
Many economically relevant variables (risk, confidence, uncertainty) are latent and therefore not directly observable, which creates identification challenges in applied regressions. This text formalizes how omitting latent factors generates omitted-variable bias and discusses when including a proxy variable can mitigate it. We...
We study the drivers and spatial diffusion of U.S. state population growth using a dynamic spatial model for 49 states, 1965-2017. Methodologically, we recover the spatial network structure from the data, rather than imposing it a priori via contiguity or distance, and combine this with an IV estimator that permits heterogeneous...
The causalfe package provides a Python implementation of Causal Forests with Fixed Effects (CFFE) for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in panel data settings. Standard causal forest methods struggle with panel data because unit and time fixed effects induce spurious heterogeneity in treatment effect estimates. The CFFE...
We prove that there is no preferential voting method satisfying the Condorcet winner and loser criteria, positive involvement (if a candidate $x$ wins in an initial preference profile, then adding a voter who ranks $x$ uniquely first cannot cause $x$ to lose), and $n$-voter resolvability (if $x$ initially ties for winning, then $x$...
This paper develops semiparametric methods for estimation and inference of widely used inequality measures when survey data are subject to nonignorable nonresponse, a challenging setting in which response probabilities depend on the unobserved outcomes. Such nonresponse mechanisms are common in household surveys and invalidate...
We extend well-known comparative results under expected utility to models of non-expected utility by providing novel conditions on local utility functions. We illustrate how our results parallel, and are distinct from, existing results for monotone comparative statics under expected utility, as well as risk preferences for...
How do evaluation systems compress multidimensional performance information into summary ratings? Using expert assessments of 9,669 professional soccer players on 28 attributes, we characterize the dimensional structure of evaluation outputs. The first principal component explains 40.6% of attribute variance, indicating a strong...
This study examines market behavior in critical mineral investments using a novel analytical framework that combines change-point detection (PELT algorithm) with cross-sectional analysis. This research analyzes ESG-ranked critical mineral ETFs from March 31, 2014, to April 19, 2024, using the S&P 500 as a benchmark to evaluate market...
We study surplus division in network constrained bilateral matching markets with transferable utility. We introduce a new solution concept, the credible bargaining solution, which refines stability by requiring that, for each matched pair of buyer and seller, surplus be divided according to the Nash bargaining solution with respect to...
This paper develops a design-first econometric framework for event-study and difference-in-differences estimands under staggered adoption with heterogeneous effects, emphasising (i) exact probability limits for conventional two-way fixed effects event-study regressions, (ii) computable design diagnostics that quantify contamination...
In applied research, Lee (2009) bounds are widely applied to bound the average treatment effect in the presence of selection bias. This paper extends the methodology of Lee bounds to accommodate outcomes in a general metric space, such as compositional and distributional data. By exploiting a representation of the Fréchet mean of the...
Click-fraud is commonly seen as a key vulnerability of pro-rata revenue sharing rule on music streaming platforms, whereas user-centric is largely immune. This paper develops a tractable non-cooperative model in which artists can purchase fraud activity that generates undetectable fake streams up to a technological limit. We defend...
How do religious identities change? We study the effects of civic education reforms on religious identification using Colombia's 1991 Constitution, which dismantled the country's confessional regime and mandated constitutional instruction in high schools. Exploiting cohort-based variation in exposure to the reform and nationally...
Digital advertising platforms and publishers sell ad inventory that conveys targeting information, such as demographic, contextual, or behavioral audience segments, to advertisers. While revealing this information improves ad relevance, it can reduce competition and lower auction revenues. To resolve this trade-off, this paper...
The Journal Impact Factor (IF), as a core indicator of academic evaluation, has not been systematically studied in relation to its historical evolution and global macroeconomic environment. This paper employs a period-based regression analysis using long-term time series data from 1975-2026 to examine the statistical relationship...
Fisheries are vulnerable to environmental shocks that impact stock health and fisher income. Index insurance is a promising financial tool to protect fishers from environmental risk. However, insurance may change fisher's behavior. It is imperative to understand the direction fishers change their behavior before implementing new...
This chapter develops a unified framework for studying misspecified learning situations in which agents optimize and update beliefs within an incorrect model of their environment. We review the statistical foundations of learning from misspecified models and extend these insights to environments with endogenous, action-dependent data,...
We establish concentration rates for estimation of treatment effects in experiments that incorporate prior sources of information -- such as past pilots, related studies, or expert assessments -- whose external validity is uncertain. Each source is modeled as a Gaussian prior with its own mean and precision, and sources are combined...
This paper proposes a novel approach for estimating treatment effects in panel data settings, addressing key limitations of the standard difference-in-differences (DID) approach. The standard approach relies on the parallel trends assumption, implicitly requiring that unobservable factors correlated with treatment assignment be...
This study assesses the impact of tobacco billboard bans on smoking in Switzerland, exploiting their staggered adoption across regions, i.e., the cantons. Based on retrospective smoking histories from the Swiss Health Survey, a panel of individuals' annual smoking status is reconstructed, containing more than one million observations...
This paper addresses the methodology for the quarterly estimation of Compensation of Employees paid by the General Government (GG) sector, in accordance with the European System of Accounts (ESA 2010). Due to the limited high-frequency data availability and the need to guarantee the consistency with annual constraints, quarterly...
The potential for drone delivery services to transform logistics systems and consumer behavior has gained increasing attention. However, comprehensive empirical evidence on consumer delivery choice behavior within the context of transportation and urban air logistics remains limited, particularly in Japan. This study addresses this...
In this paper, we extend the Riesz representation framework to causal inference under sample selection, where both treatment assignment and outcome observability are non-random. Formulating the problem in terms of a Riesz representer enables stable estimation and a transparent decomposition of omitted variable bias into three...
Following several episodes of financial market turmoil in recent decades, changes in systemic risk have drawn growing attention. Therefore, we propose surveillance schemes for systemic risk, which allow to detect misspecified systemic risk forecasts in an "online" fashion. This enables daily monitoring of the forecasts while...
Behavior in repeated public goods games continues to challenge standard theory: heterogeneous social preferences can explain first-round contributions, but not the substantial volatility observed across repeated interactions. Using 50,390 decisions from 2,938 participants, we introduce two methodological advances to address this gap....