arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 5, 2026 — 12:09:11 EST
A central socioeconomic concern about Artificial Intelligence is that it will lower wages by depressing the labor share - the fraction of economic output paid to labor. We show that declining labor share is more likely to raise wages. In a competitive economy with constant returns to scale, we prove that the wage-maximizing labor...
Given the recent targeting of Chinese scientists by the Department of Justice and sizable contributions of Chinese scientists to American science, it is urgent to investigate the presence and the particulars of anti-Chinese discrimination in the American academy. Across a sample of all faculty in the top 100 departments of sociology,...
Clinical trials shape medical evidence and determine who gains access to experimental therapies. Whether participation in these trials reflects the global burden of disease remains unclear. Here we analyze participation inequality across more than 62,000 randomized controlled trials spanning 16 major disease categories from 2000 to...
Many workers value purpose and meaning in their jobs alongside income, and firms need to align these preferences with profit goals. This paper develops a dynamic model in which firms invest in purpose to enhance job meaning and motivate effort. Workers, who differ in productivity, choose both productive and socialization effort,...
Does more information benefit consumers when a monopolist can adjust its price? Although information helps consumers evaluate a product, Schlee (1996) showed that public disclosure can reduce consumer surplus. We characterize exactly when the opposite occurs. More informative disclosure increases consumer surplus if and only if a...
Miscalibrated beliefs are widely viewed as compromising the quality of employees' decisions. Why, then, might an organization prefer to hire an individual known to be overconfident? This paper develops a theory of organizational demand for employees' levels of confidence when private information interacts with conflicts of interest. I...
Empirical models of multi-product demand rely on low-dimensional product representations to capture substitution patterns, increasingly using proxies built from unstructured data. When proxies are imperfect, standard workflows yield biased counterfactuals and invalid inference. We develop a practical toolkit to address these issues....
Empirical measures of financial connectedness based on Forecast Error Variance Decompositions (FEVDs) often yield dense network structures that obscure true transmission channels and complicate the identification of systemic risk. This paper proposes a novel information-criterion-based approach to uncover sparse, economically...
We investigate the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption on skill requirements using 14 million online job vacancies from Chinese listed firms (2018-2022). Employing a novel Extreme Multi-Label Classification (XMLC) algorithm trained via contrastive learning and LLM-driven data augmentation, we map vacancy requirements to...
The rapid integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into China's economy presents a classic governance challenge: how to harness its growth potential while managing its disruptive effects on traditional capital and labor markets. This study addresses this policy dilemma by modeling the dynamic interactions between AI capital,...
This paper derives limit properties of nonparametric kernel regression estimators without requiring existence of density for regressors in $\mathbb{R}^{q}.$ In functional regression limit properties are established for multivariate functional regression. The rate and asymptotic normality for the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) estimator is...
Generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) is diffusing rapidly, yet its adoption is strikingly unequal. Using nationally representative UK survey data from 2023 to 2024, we show that women adopt GenAI substantially less often than men because they perceive its societal risks differently. We construct a composite index capturing...
This paper proposes a formal framework for reverse stress testing geopolitical risk in corporate credit portfolios. A joint macro-financial scenario vector, augmented with an explicit geopolitical risk factor, is mapped into stressed probabilities of default and losses given default. These stresses are then propagated to portfolio...
Portfolio diversification is a cornerstone of modern finance, while risk aversion is central to decision theory; both concepts are long-standing and foundational. We investigate their connections by studying how different forms of diversification correspond to notions of risk aversion. We focus on the classical distinctions between...
We study the adjudication of water rights in international rivers. We characterize allocation rules that formalize focal principles to deal with water disputes in a basic model. Central to our analysis is a family of geometric rules that implement concatenated transfers downstream. They can be seen as formalizing Limited Territorial...
We study a ridge estimator for the high-dimensional two-way fixed effect regression model with a sparse bipartite network. We develop concentration inequalities showing that when the ridge parameters increase as the log of the network size, the bias, and the variance-covariance matrix of the vector of estimated fixed effects converge...
Factor extraction from systems of variables with a large cross-sectional dimension, $N$, is often based on either Principal Components (PC)-based procedures, or Kalman filter (KF)-based procedures. Measuring the uncertainty of the extracted factors is important when, for example, they have a direct interpretation and/or they are used...
The endogenous grid method (EGM) accelerates dynamic programming by inverting the Euler equation, but it appears incompatible with Epstein-Zin preferences where the value function enters the Euler equation. This paper shows that a power transformation resolves the difficulty. The resulting algorithm requires no root-finding, achieves...
This paper develops a unified framework for analyzing technology adoption in financial networks that incorporates spatial spillovers, network externalities, and their interaction. The framework characterizes adoption dynamics through a master equation whose solution admits a Feynman-Kac representation as expected cumulative adoption...
This study proposes a novel hybrid deep learning framework that integrates a Large Language Model (LLM) with a Transformer architecture for stock price forecasting. The research addresses a critical theoretical gap in existing approaches that empirically combine textual and numerical data without a formal understanding of their...
Behavioral theories rest on parsimony: a small number of mechanisms organizing many decisions. We define a Maximum Rule Concentration Index that measures how parsimoniously a dataset of risky choices can be organized through a library of simple, parameter-free decision rules drawn from canonical behavioral theories: salience, regret,...
We identify volatility spillovers across commodities, equities, and treasuries using a hybrid HAR-ElasticNet framework on daily realized volatility for six futures markets over 2002--2025. Our two step procedure estimates own-volatility dynamics via OLS to preserve persistence, then applies ElasticNet regularization to cross-market...
Students from different socioeconomic backgrounds exhibit persistent gaps in test scores, gaps that can translate into unequal educational and labor-market outcomes later in life. In many assessments, performance reflects not only what students know, but also how effectively they can communicate that knowledge. This distinction is...
Consider a setup in which a decision maker is informed about the population by a finite sample and based on that sample has to decide whether or not to apply a certain treatment. We work out finite sample minimax regret treatment rules under various sampling schemes when outcomes are restricted onto the unit interval. In contrast to...
The 2023 U.S. banking crisis propagated not through direct financial linkages but through a high-frequency, information-based contagion channel. This paper moves beyond exploration analysis to test the "too-similar-to-fail" hypothesis, arguing that risk spillovers were driven by perceived similarities in bank business models under...