arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 5, 2026 — 03:28:22 EST
Intra-household joint home-based tours - trips in which household members depart together, engage in shared activities, and return together - represent a significant share of daily travel, yet are systematically ignored in transport simulations. Conflating joint and solo tours within a single mode choice framework introduces bias in...
This paper develops asymptotic theory and feasible inference for unbounded-kernel order-k U-statistics under clustered sampling and weakly dependent time-series sampling. The analysis first builds the complete order-2 pipeline, moving from clustered data to exact m-dependence and then to near-epoch dependence. The same logic is...
This paper presents a framework for stable matching markets that accommodates the peer-dependent preferences employed in empirical work. We show the existence of a stable matching in a continuum economy and of an approximately stable matching in a large finite sampled economy under assumptions satisfied by standard empirical...
We study difference-in-differences (DiD) designs in which a binary treatment changes an endogenous time-varying (continuous, discrete, or mixed) mediator that in turn affects an outcome. Under our model assumptions, we show that the usual DiD estimand mixes the average direct effect on the treated, the average indirect effect, and a...
We examine how agents learn when information from original sources only reaches them after noisy relay. A receiver learns if and only if they have access to sufficiently many chains of noisy relay and they perfectly understand the noise process. However, even slight uncertainty over message mutation rates makes learning from long...
We introduce a general, easy-to-implement AI-based method for studying the structure and complexity of human behavior. We assign a large language model a ``type vector'' and then prompt it to choose actions across settings in which we observe human choices. For instance, the type vector (2,4) becomes ``You are a player characterized...
Pairwise randomization can yield substantial efficiency gains in experiments. Yet methodological guidance cautions against pairwise randomization, especially in settings with attrition, partly because common practices for estimation (i.e., pair fixed effects) imply discarding data from incomplete pairs thus exacerbating data loss from...
We study a dynamic coalition-formation process in the tradition of Konishi and Ray (2003): players repeatedly form and dissolve binding agreements, evaluate states by discounted long-term expected payoffs, and hold self-confirming beliefs about the process. States and payoff sharing follow Heitzig and Kornek (2018): a state is a...
Multidimensional screening is (in)famously intractable. In this paper, we study optimal screening mechanisms subject to a tractability constraint from the agent's perspective. Specifically, we require that the menu of options offered by the designer can be ordered so that, regardless of her preference type, the agent can find a...
Trust in local institutions matters for trade, public goods provision, conflict resolution, and democratic consolidation. Using individual data from rounds 6 and 7 of the Afrobarometer surveys, I document that respondents in former British colonies are substantially more likely to trust traditional leaders than respondents in former...
This paper develops a theoretical framework for signed optimal transport. A global flatness measure induced by the continuum transport equation serves as the regularizer. We examine transport networks from a harmonic analysis perspective, prove the existence and uniqueness of the optimal coupling in the variational problem, and...
We develop a continuous-time entry-deterrence game in which market demand evolves according to the Chan-Karolyi-Longstaff-Sanders (CKLS) stochastic differential equation, allowing mean reversion and state-dependent volatility. An incumbent with privately known strength strategically chooses advertising and promotional expenditures to...
Generative AI can now perform many tasks that credentialing institutions count on to assess skill. During the AI era, do credentials retain their signaling value for subsequent performance? Mostly, yes. We audit the 2010-2026 archive of Kaggle, the largest data science competition platform, which ran two evaluation formats...
How level-0 players behave and how they are perceived by higher-level players are central questions in the literature on level-k models of boundedly rational strategic reasoning. To study these twin questions, we apply the intra-team communication method developed by Burchardi and Penczynski (2014) to identify level-0 actions and...
We study how fast experimental designs can approach the semiparametric efficiency bound in finite samples, as measured by the excess variance of unadjusted treatment effect estimation. We prove an impossibility theorem: under weak conditions, no design can approach the variance bound uniformly over smooth outcome models unless...
Most digital job-search assistance encourages unemployed workers to broaden their search toward related occupations, targeting one important source of search inefficiency: insufficient occupational diversification. Our analysis suggests that the relevant margin of adjustment depends on the underlying search problem. Building on a...
Job seekers' expectations about reemployment are increasingly used to study job search, but what their biases reveal about underlying beliefs and preferences is ambiguous. We combine new survey data, structural modeling, and machine learning to uncover the informational content of these expectations and show how they can be used to...
This paper analyzes when choice probabilities reveal rankings of deterministic utility indices in semiparametric discrete choice models. It begins with binary choice, where quantile thresholds guarantee ranking recovery, and shows that such thresholds can arise either from behavioral departures from utility maximization (e.g., limited...
This paper studies how robust social learning is when sampling is selective, i.e., some types of actions are more likely to be sampled by successors. We show that Bayesian agents can achieve asymptotic learning despite non-expanding observations, because the endogenous observation network itself carries information and agents have...
Empirical studies of peer effects often exploit conditional random assignment to peer groups within urns. We develop a GMM framework for estimation and inference in this setting. The framework separately identifies endogenous and contextual peer effects and nests tests of random peer-group assignment as a special case. It permits...
We ask whether COVID-19 lockdown stringency altered national Olympic performance between Rio 2016 and Tokyo 2020, using the Oxford Stringency Index and the 99 countries that won a medal in either edition. As in \citet{liu2024}, mean performance is unaffected: stringency is insignificant in every OLS and ANOVA specification. The...
We study the existence of a \emph{Regional Differential} in rugby sevens: whether, in tournaments where no competing team enjoys formal home status, some national sides systematically over- or under-perform depending on \emph{where} the event is staged. Using the universe of 2672 men's and women's matches from international rugby...
Research activity generates highly localized positive spillovers, yet in the U.S. it has become increasingly spatially misaligned with population and economic activity as people moved away from legacy cities where major research institutions remain anchored. Reallocating researchers toward population centers could broaden local access...
We design a method for measuring the risk preferences of agents in the deep past. The method combines a structural model of crop choice as a portfolio allocation with machine-learning prediction of expected crop returns, using historic agronomic and climate data. We estimate county-level risk preferences for the United States and...
Route and activity choice are connected levels of a common sequential mobility decision problem: activity choice determines what people do, where, and when, while route choice governs how they move between activities. This review develops a unified framework connecting transportation choice modeling with inverse reinforcement learning...