arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 5, 2026 — 05:21:11 EST
AI predicts; humans use its predictions to make decisions. These predictions are combined with human verification and analysis, queries to other statistical models, and so on. The economic value of an AI, therefore, depends on how it interacts with the surrounding decision environment. We describe the value of AI as part of this...
We study how organizations use frontier generative AI by linking ChatGPT Enterprise account records to usage, worker roles, task classifications, and public-company financial data through March 2026. These linked data enable a privacy-preserving analysis of adoption, worker roles, and message-level tasks at scale: for instance, the...
Outcomes are increasingly regressed on a calibrated probability vector for unobserved class membership, and that vector is often coarsened to a hard label first. Under a constant-coefficient structural mean and conditional calibration, the observed-data problem is a partially linear regression of the outcome on the probability vector;...
We study two observable queues with identical service rates, serving agents who arrive stochastically over time. Agents join the queue that minimizes their expected waiting time. Assuming one queue uses the ubiquitous First-Come-First-Served (FCFS) service rule, we show that by simply modifying its service order, the other queue can...
We extend the concept of priority-neutral matching, introduced by Reny (2022) in the school choice context, to the roommate problem. We prove three main results. First, a blocking-neutral matching always exists in constrained roommate problems under arbitrary feasibility constraints (Theorem 1). Second, the set of stable matchings is...
This study proposes that firms move along an "organizational technology ladder": adopting one technology transforms hiring and work processes and builds skills and organizational capital that change the cost of adopting subsequent technologies. I study how firms' adoption of remote work technology during the COVID-19 period shaped...
How should institutions compare group diversity, and which group should they select when they value diversity and merit? We take a target-based approach that evaluates the entire group composition without treating any type as intrinsically diversity-enhancing. Because different diversity indices may rank groups differently, we instead...
We study how differences in AI-generated financial recommendations are transmitted into individual portfolio choices. In an experiment with 400 employed adults enrolled in workplace defined contribution pension plans in South Korea, participants allocate a hypothetical pension balance across eleven products and may revise it after...
A number of recent empirical papers rely on a collective model to analyze the portfolio choice of spouses, their heterogeneous risk preferences, and intra-household bargaining. I study applications of this model and highlight some important shortcomings. In its classic form, the model generates a counterintuitive result: an increase...
We propose a comprehensive framework for solving overlapping-generations (OLG) models in continuous time with both idiosyncratic and aggregate risk. Our general characterization of equilibrium through the master equation operates on the joint distribution over the continuous idiosyncratic states, age and wealth. Our computational...
Many questions across the sciences take the same form: several coupled series are observed together, and the analyst wants to know not merely that they move together but which one moves first, and how strongly. This paper sets out a complete method built on one organising idea: the direction of a coupled system is exactly the part of...
When comparison units may also respond to treatment, panel comparisons reflect both the treatment effect and spillovers. If the interference pattern is unknown, observed outcomes alone do not separate the two. I characterize what can nevertheless be learned from panel outcomes under general restrictions, without requiring an exposure...
This paper compares direct-yield and factor-based approaches to U.S. Treasury yield curve forecasting using a common high-dimensional macroeconomic information set. Forecasts are evaluated on monthly zero-coupon yields over the 2015-2025 out-of-sample period. Gains over the random walk are concentrated at short maturities and in slope...
Immediate Acceptance (IA, also known as the Boston mechanism) is commonly used to assign students to schools because it produces a Pareto-efficient matching if parents report their preferences over schools truthfully, unlike student-proposing Deferred Acceptance (DA). In this paper, we ask: does IA produce meaningfully better average...
A red herring, an irrelevant passage added to a problem, corrupts a language model's reasoning and, through it, its final answer, while the form of the response survives untouched. The benchmark, called the Graduate Economic Reasoning Benchmark (GERB), is sixty graduate-level microeconomics problems, each a detailed setup with a...
We develop a general framework of identification and estimation for automatic debiased machine learning (DML) where the parameter of interest $θ_0$ is identified by a moment condition involving a nuisance $γ_0$ that may be high dimensional. We establish conditions under which the Riesz representer $α_0$, which is at the core of DML,...
This paper studies the willingness-to-accept/willingness-to-pay (WTA-WTP) gap under objective probabilities. Preferences over finite lotteries satisfy completeness, transitivity, continuity, weak independence, reference partition, and range dependence. Weak independence requires von Neumann-Morgenstern independence only for mixtures...
This paper characterizes a class of twice continuously differentiable objective-probability preference representations exhibiting endogenous reference dependence under risk. Weak rank-dependent utility (WRDU) preserves objective probabilities, partitions outcomes at an endogenous reference point, and evaluates lotteries through a...
A red herring, an irrelevant passage added to a problem, corrupts a language model's reasoning and, through it, its final answer, while the form of the response survives untouched. The benchmark, called the Graduate Economic Reasoning Benchmark (GERB), is sixty graduate-level microeconomics problems, each a detailed setup with a...
Language models increasingly settle real resource tradeoffs on behalf of principals yet their economic preferences remain unobserved. We demonstrate their generation rule is isomorphic to the random utility model of discrete choice. This allows internal logit scores to structurally identify preferences. Estimating risk attitudes...
Using a mean-field game framework, we study a dynamic model of bank runs in which more withdrawals raise the risk of bank failure. Even though depositors receive gradual and idiosyncratic shocks, withdrawals occur in clusters. The main mechanism is latent fragility: run-prone depositors accumulate gradually over time and may prefer to...
This paper presents the General Theory of Relational Primacy (GTRP), a conceptual and formal framework for understanding stability, crisis, and transition in complex systems. The central thesis is that systems are not defined by their variables but by the relations that organize them. Variables are merely late manifestations of deep...
We study how the similarity of individuals' information shapes collective action. When people draw on a common source of information, such as social media, each becomes more confident about what others have seen and will do. This can help them coordinate, but it can also tempt them to free-ride. We show that which force prevails...
This paper develops an inference procedure for average functionals of random-coefficient distributions, such as mean willingness-to-pay and average elasticities, when the distribution is estimated nonparametrically using the penalized fixed-grid estimator of Heiss, Hetzenecker, and Osterhaus (2022). We establish asymptotic normality...
This paper studies the long-run alignment of interactive agents, including AI systems, teams, firms, and governments, with human welfare. It develops a farming game in which a population of agents makes planting, trading, and expansion decisions. Agents must allocate final output between transfers to humans and investment in their own...