arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 5, 2026 — 00:31:54 EST
Claims of the form "we find no evidence that X affects Y" appear throughout the applied finance literature, yet whether such a claim contains evidence of absence or absence of evidence depends entirely on its confidence interval. The term "statistically insignificant" is routinely read to mean zero economic effect. However, a more...
Small-cap-inclusive equity universes contain recently listed and intermittently traded securities, so enforcing a common look-back discards a substantial fraction of the available information. Pairwise-complete estimation preserves the longest overlap for each asset pair, but the resulting correlation matrix can be indefinite because...
Loss-versus-Rebalancing (LVR) is the dominant adverse-selection cost borne by liquidity providers on automated market makers. Under geometric Brownian motion, arbitrage profit scales with the probability of a profitable block, which vanishes as the block time $Δt \to 0$; this is the standing argument for ever-shorter blocks. Modeling...
This paper develops a latent-state framework for recovering borrower-level posterior beliefs in credit-risk analysis. Creditworthiness and financial fragility are represented as latent dimensions, while observed borrower scores follow a finite Gaussian mixture model and default depends on the latent profile. Borrower-specific...
Portfolio risk assessment ordinarily relies on reliable estimates of cross-asset return covariances, which are difficult to obtain in short, high-dimensional panels. We show that firm-level distribution-valued characteristics can instead provide one-sided certificates of portfolio risk. Under maintained links from characteristics to...
Spatial return models take the interaction matrix as given and leave feedback uninterpreted. We construct a bandwidth-free field from firms' language-model article embedding distributions using target-anchored Wasserstein barycentric reconstruction. A quadratic exposure-adjustment problem maps feedback into a peer-misalignment penalty...
We study the quadratic tracking problem of a general stochastic target process with absolutely continuous controls, with and without terminal constraint. We derive explicit, non-asymptotic upper bounds in terms of a Besov-type modulus of the target. These bounds yield sharp explicit rates that specialize to the square-root order for...
The factor HJM stochastic volatility model introduced by Sepp and Rakhmonov (2025) obtains tractable swaption pricing by freezing the nonlinear swap-rate loading along a deterministic expected-state path. This removes the dependence of conditional swap-rate variance on the current yield-curve state. We introduce a first-order Taylor...
Classical option-hedging methods like Black-Scholes delta assume constant, free rebalancing, which real markets don't allow. Deep hedging trains a neural network to handle these frictions directly, and prior work reports strong results. But those comparisons usually pit deep hedging against a frictionless classical baseline on...
Evaluating customer creditworthiness is crucial for retail banking operations, as it impacts marketing strategies, customer relationship management, and credit risk control. Traditional methods often struggle to capture complex temporal dependencies and extract pertinent information from customer data, crucial for accurate risk...
We develop a market-informed valuation framework for guaranteed minimum maturity benefit (GMMB) riders with rational surrender under the Heston stochastic-local volatility (SLV) model. The guarantee is written on the fee-deducted account value and is considered both in its terminal-only form and in the presence of early...
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to discover trading strategies, and much of the resulting literature shares a methodological weakness: many candidate strategies are generated, the best is reported, and neither look-ahead bias nor the intensity of the search behind the reported result is corrected for. We present a...
Bitcoin inverse options, traded on the Deribit exchange and settled in the underlying cryptocurrency rather than in fiat currency, combine extreme and genuinely rough volatility dynamics with a non-linear, currency-dependent payoff structure. This paper develops and empirically validates a pricing and calibration framework for these...
This paper develops a unified framework for assessing systemic risk and identifying contagion channels in the global banking system using a Temporal Heterogeneous Multiplex Graph Neural Network. We construct a harmonised quarterly panel combining bank fundamentals, CDS spreads, and macroeconomic indicators, and represent these data as...
Bayesian inference in compound loss models must often be repeated across policies, market scenarios, and prior specifications. Outside conjugate cases, this may require repeated numerical integration or Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We formulate this problem as amortized posterior approximation and construct a conditional...
We extend a residual-learning hybrid credit scoring framework (logistic regression scorecard plus a gradient-boosting correction on its residuals, decomposed at each prediction into an interpretability ratio $ρ(x)$ that measures the share attributable to the linear branch) along three axes: an East African empirical instantiation on...
Evaluating customer creditworthiness is crucial for retail banking operations, as it impacts marketing strategies, customer relationship management, and credit risk control. Traditional methods often struggle to capture complex temporal dependencies and extract pertinent information from customer data, crucial for accurate risk...
We develop a PDE-based methodology for pricing and hedging European contingent claims in general one-dimensional diffusion markets characterized solely by their scale function and speed measure, possibly without a classical SDE representation, and with constant interest rate. We derive a hedging equation whose solution generates a...
Backtests of trading strategies are often selected after many parameter trials. A strong historical result can therefore reflect search luck rather than a persistent signal. Standard summaries such as return, Sharpe ratio, and drawdown do not record how many candidates were tried, whether the selected rule survives out-of-sample...
This paper develops the first end-to-end application of cross-sectional learning-to-rank to the S&P 500 weekly options (SPXW) zero-day-to-expiration surface, integrated with margin-aware position sizing, an abstention rule driven by model uncertainty, and a strict out-of-time integrity check. A LightGBM LambdaRank ranker scores a...
Lead-lag relationships are widely used in financial time series, and many clustering algorithms based on them have been developed. The traditional DTW-KMedoids algorithm performs well both on the synthetic dataset and the real financial dataset. However, there are still several limitations to these algorithms: low efficiency caused by...
We show that the key optimization results of the classical Markowitz portfolio selection theory, originally formulated for variance as the risk measure, remain available in explicit closed form under a broader class of strictly convex quadratic risk measures. The proposed framework replaces the covariance matrix with an arbitrary...
This work complements our previous paper, which studies borrower-side strategies in decentralized lending markets, by focusing on lender-side capital allocation. We consider a lender who seeks to allocate a fixed budget across multiple markets sharing the same supplied asset. Accounting for the impact of supplied capital on lending...
We study equilibria in a closed, fee-free constant-function market maker (CFMM) economy with two assets and two traders. An interior state is a unilateral no-trade equilibrium exactly when the CFMM marginal price equals both traders' marginal rates of substitution. For an interior initial state, individually rational unilateral...
Backtests of trading strategies are often selected after many parameter trials. A strong historical result can therefore reflect search luck rather than a persistent signal. Standard summaries such as return, Sharpe ratio, and drawdown do not record how many candidates were tried, whether the selected rule survives out-of-sample...