arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 5, 2026 — 02:28:22 EST
We measure volatility roughness across asset classes using a common data infrastructure and pipeline. Our data covers 3,926 United States equities, 34 CME futures roots, rates, FX, and commodities, and options on 44 underlyings over 2010-2025. Realized volatility is rough everywhere. The class-median Hurst estimate ranges from $0.05$...
We study optimal investment for insurers managing participating (profit-sharing) contracts under probability distortion and probability benchmark (aspiration) constraints. The problem combines three theoretical complexities: (i) nonconcave effective utilities induced by embedded guarantees and surplus-sharing rules, (ii) probability...
We develop a scalable adjoint-to-control framework for continuous-time portfolio choice under smooth pointwise constraints. A feasible direct-policy-optimization (DPO) policy supplies rollouts; after training, fixed-latent open-loop BPTT (OL-BPTT) yields first- and second-order pathwise sensitivities, whose conditional projections...
Investors interpret social disclosures from a risk perspective, yet relevant information can reach them through channels that differ sharply in regulatory enforcement and materiality: SEC filings, sustainability reports, or financial reports. We analyse how social disclosure via each channel relates to idiosyncratic risk. Studying S&P...
This paper develops a unit-consistent actuarial framework for pricing capped cumulative temperature-index insurance under long-range dependence and stochastic variability. Daily temperature anomalies are modeled as increments of fractional Brownian motion evaluated at an operational time generated by the integral of a stationary...
Human capital is a central organizational input, but standard financial data reveal little about firm-specific disruptions to workforce availability, cost, skills, and continuity. I construct a measure of disclosed human-capital disruption from earnings calls using author-defined coding criteria and a contextual language model. Within...
Decentralized lending lacks a credit bureau: a borrower's capacity to repay must be inferred entirely from public on-chain activity, without income verification or a liability record. This paper presents zLend, a deployed cash-flow underwriting framework that reconstructs a wallet's daily balance history from raw token transfers and...
Using neural networks for stock return prediction typically requires choices about depth and hidden-layer width that are difficult to connect to financial interpretation. We study an alternative: estimate dependence among firm characteristics with a Maximally Filtered Clique Forest (MFCF), then map its clique structure to a...
Suppose there are $N$ heterogeneous agents in a market with idiosyncratic risks but no uninsurable systematic risk factors. These agents may agree arbitrary financial contracts with one another, subject to the condition that contracts are self-enforcing under coalitions of agents in a common state. We show that, under mild conditions,...
We study dynamic physical hedging for insurers exposed jointly to catastrophe losses and stochastic reconstruction costs. Surplus evolves as a controlled jump diffusion whose loss amplitude combines marked catastrophe severity, an exogenous mean-reverting cost factor, and endogenous mitigation. We establish well-posedness, moment and...
This study focuses on developing an AI-supported prototype for multiperspective interest rate forecasting that combines classical econometric models with modern artificial intel-ligence methods. Tested in a major European bank, the system enables more precise and flexible prediction of interest rate developments, supporting strategic...
Narrow Uniswap v3 liquidity ranges resemble short dated options, and Panoptic's streaming premium echoes the short maturity concentration of Black-Scholes theta near the strike. This motivates a natural question: can implied volatility be extracted from Uniswap v3 and Panoptic using only on chain observables? A direct identification...
Generative models of limit orderbook (LOB) data have advanced rapidly, but their evaluation often focuses on stylised facts and selected market statistics. These measures provide useful diagnostics but may not capture the joint temporal and cross-level structure of order-book trajectories. We introduce LOB-ID, an embedding-based...
We study stress-scenario generation for systems driven by multivariate heavy-tailed risk factors. Within regions where several financial losses are simultaneously extreme, stress analysis concerns both the conditional law of the risk factors and the most plausible configurations producing those losses. We show that both are governed...
An investor may be optimistic about aggregate endowment growth at some times and pessimistic at others. The weight placed on her forecast in bond valuation can therefore vary across maturities. We study whether this maturity dependence disappears at the long end of the yield curve. In a two-investor Arrow--Debreu economy, physical...
Shariah-compliant equity screening provides a transparent setting in which institutional rules determine who may own a stock. A binary label identifies current eligibility but not whether the feasible investor base is fragmented across standards or close to changing. We define this instability as classification uncertainty and...
As more investors contemplate private markets and contend with limited transparency, sparse disclosures, and infrequent transactions, identifying economically meaningful peer companies for comparison is a fundamental challenge for valuation, due diligence, portfolio construction, and risk management. We propose an ensemble tree-based...
This article presents with DYSANOS the first generative market model for smooth SANOS option surfaces for all strikes and expiries which are free of static arbitrage. Our model is designed to generate entire paths of daily spot and option prices for years in the future. We present a robust and useful if somewhat simplistic baseline...
Diffusion generative models have rapidly emerged as powerful tools for modeling complex financial data. Their appeal is both structural and practical: they offer stable likelihood-based training, strong mode coverage, flexible conditioning, and a stochastic-differential-equation formulation that aligns naturally with the Itô calculus...
We develop a geometric theory of arbitrage-free implied variance surface dynamics. Smile dynamics are formulated as transport flows on the admissible class of static-arbitrage-free surfaces: spot movements generate transport vector fields, and the transport velocity field v(k) unifies all classical stickiness regimes. The...
Large language models can extract richer signals from financial news than fixed sentiment lexicons, and recent work has explored feeding such signals into portfolio construction. We study an uncertainty-aware construction that feeds model-predicted risk -- decomposed into aleatoric and epistemic components -- directly into the...
Financial volatility is regime dependent, yet incorporating regime information into neural networks can also destabilize training. This paper asks where such information should enter a neural cross-sectional volatility forecasting model. We study five-day realized-volatility forecasts for 1,027 U.S. equities using a rolling...
We examine the shapes attainable by the forward and yield curve in the Hull-White model with Svensson-parameterized initial yield curves. For Nelson-Siegel-parameterized initial yield curves, we provide a complete classification of all attainable shapes and partition the parameter space and the state space according to these shapes....
This study focuses on developing an AI-supported prototype for multiperspective interest rate forecasting that combines classical econometric models with modern artificial intel-ligence methods. Tested in a major European bank, the system enables more precise and flexible prediction of interest rate developments, supporting strategic...
Thousands of SOFR derivatives are available in exchanges and OTC, but the market remains illiquid and incomplete. Such a market is beyond the scope of classic risk-neutral approaches that imply linear pricing rules and, at best, approximate hedging strategies whose hedging error may be difficult to quantify. This paper develops an...