arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 5, 2026 — 03:28:23 EST
Our primary goal is to forecast and empirically examine the evolution of the implied volatility (IV) surface, with particular focus on the dates of scheduled meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Firstly, we check if IV increases before the announcement and if thes effect is stronger for short-dated, out-the-money...
Automated quantitative research has made striking progress, yet each system answers the same question: which strategy scores highest on a scalar metric? We argue this question is incomplete. Professional investors do not order "the highest return"; they order an identity--pure stock-selection alpha uncontaminated by style exposure,...
We calibrate credit default swaps and index tranches with elastically stopped Lévy processes: each firm defaults when the running supremum of a latent, spectrally positive distress process crosses an independent exponential barrier. This yields a Cox construction with totally inaccessible default times, while retaining the...
Option quotes with bid-ask spreads do not point-identify the risk-neutral probability of a crash below a given threshold, nor the expected depth of the crash once the threshold is breached. Bounds computed separately for the two quantities can mislead, because their endpoints may be attained by different risk-neutral distributions. We...
Option quotes with bid-ask spreads do not point-identify the risk-neutral probability of a crash below a given threshold, nor the expected depth of the crash once the threshold is breached. Bounds computed separately for the two quantities can mislead, because their endpoints may be attained by different risk-neutral distributions. We...
Automated code generation is becoming an important tool in quantitative finance, where large language models can generate option pricing implementations directly from mathematical model specifications. Validating such implementations, however, requires considerably more than conventional software testing: numerical pricing methods...
OpenMarket began as an attempt to trade Polymarket's BTC 15-minute binary markets against Binance BTC/USDT order flow. The attempt did not produce a tradable edge: out-of-sample, a walk-forward logistic model over 43 microstructure features does not beat, and slightly underperforms, the probability already implied by Polymarket's own...
Every widely followed Bitcoin cycle indicator (Pi Cycle, MVRV, Mayer, Puell) called turns precisely for a decade, then degraded in one sequence: precise, then early, then silent. This is one structural phenomenon. Across the four halving epochs (2011-2026), the per-cycle maxima of five top-calling oscillators decline monotonically...
We develop an analytic Fourier cosine (COS) method for the valuation of compound options. By deriving closed-form expressions for the cosine coefficients at all compound stages, the proposed method eliminates the need for numerical quadrature in intermediate exercise stages while retaining the convergence properties of the underlying...
A finite panel of option quotes with bid-ask spreads generally does not point-identify either the risk-neutral probability of breaching a specified threshold or the expected shortfall below that threshold conditional on a breach. Sharp marginal bounds characterize each quantity in isolation but not their jointly attainable...
Hedging a derivative position under transaction costs and market frictions requires a trading rule that adapts to changing conditions. Deep hedging trains a neural policy for this task but policy training does not determine whether a trading desk can afford to run the policy. We apply robust hedging valuation adjustment (HVA) as a...
Automated code generation is becoming an important tool in quantitative finance, where large language models can generate option pricing implementations directly from mathematical model specifications. Validating such implementations, however, requires considerably more than conventional software testing: numerical pricing methods...
This paper proposes a GARCH-type volatility model in which level-and-slope updates of a latent power-law kernel generate state-dependent decay of past shocks within a two-dimensional Markov state. We derive a joint Foster--Lyapunov condition and establish positive Harris recurrence and uniqueness of the invariant distribution....
The standard method to price European calls on a discrete dividend-paying stock is to subtract the present value of the dividends from the initial stock price in the Black-Scholes formula. However, when there are dividends after maturity, this is inconsistent with the model. Within the escrowed dividend model, we highlight an...
We present a distinctive approach to parameterizing the risk neutral distribution. Using parsimonious and interpretable parameters, the model provides direct and localized control over the shape of the implied volatility curve. It captures a wide variety of shapes, including those with local concavity. Empirical results demonstrate...
Estimating the covariance structure of financial assets typically relies on historical returns, making risk models dependent on noisy and asset-specific time series. We propose the Characteristic-Driven Dynamic Factor Model (CD-DFM), a non-linear latent factor model that instead constructs a representation of the asset cross-section...
In the insurance industry, Asset and Liability Management (ALM) models are key tools for numerous applications, including Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) computation and asset allocation optimization. However, their use often entails a significant computational cost, especially when a large number of sensitivities or stressed...
The Arrow-Pratt approximation is one of the cornerstones of expected utility theory, providing the classical local approximation of certainty equivalents and risk premia in terms of absolute risk aversion. Despite its widespread use, its mathematical scope and relationship to higher-order risk preferences remain only partially...
This paper introduces a compact reformulation of a modular end-to-end neural network for global minimum-variance portfolio optimization that decouples model complexity from both look-back window length and universe size. A five-parameter hyperbolic weighted moving average combined with a saturating exponential replaces the original...
We construct the Settlement Modernisation Index, a panel dataset of 809 reform events across 24 advanced economies between 1993 and 2024, decomposed into three economic channels and three adoption phases. We document an S-curve in inside money elasticity with two interior turning points at SMI = 0.27 and 0.93, separating a liberation...
In multi-objective and multi-criteria decision-making under risk, especially in settings involving individual behavior, risk-aware analysis based on subjective evaluation has become increasingly important. Moving beyond risk-neutral modeling and the constraints of Expected Utility Theory (EUT), Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT)...
The growth of peer-to-peer exchanges and the blockchain technology has led to a proliferation of cryptocurrencies and to a massive increase in the number of investors who actually negotiate digital money. Cryptocurrencies trade at prices mainly driven by investor sentiment, becoming a potential source of financial bubbles and...
This paper investigates the optimal surplus management problem of an insurance company operating in a financial market with stochastic interest rates and jump-driven liabilities. The insurer dynamically allocates its surplus between a risky stock and a risk-free zero-coupon bond while facing insurance claims modeled by a compound...
Understanding similarity among financial assets is essential for effective portfolio diversification. This paper proposes a novel sentiment-adjusted portfolio optimization framework that integrates Topological Data Analysis (TDA) with technical indicators and FinBERT-based sentiment scores extracted from financial news. A TDA-based...
We provide a large-scale empirical audit of DEX routing using 2.98 million WETH-USDC swaps on Ethereum. Comparing realized routes with optimized benchmarks, we measure an average shortfall of 2.02 bps per trade or \$24 million. To attribute losses, we introduce three reproducible optimal benchmarks: a Support-Constrained Optimum (SCO)...