arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 5, 2026 — 04:19:02 EST
We propose a signature-induced, optimal transport framework for path-space model risk, in which ambiguity between stochastic path laws is factorized through optimal transport costs on signature coordinates under a common coupling. Via an ambient feature-space relaxation, we derive for affine signature scores and affine half-space...
Do quantum kernels improve cross-sectional stock return prediction? We run a controlled horse race on the Chinese A-share market in which a quantum fidelity kernel, a projected quantum kernel, and a classical RBF control share identical training subsamples, solver, and tuning budgets, so that only the kernel is exchanged. On the main...
Automated market makers (AMMs) for prediction markets descend from market scoring rules, where a mechanism operator subsidizes a market to aggregate beliefs about uncertain events. The existing literature has focused on bounding the total worst-case loss to the subsidizer, but has not addressed how that loss is distributed across...
Firms in non-contractual commerce face the challenge of knowing how many customers they actually have because customers can stop buying without ever saying they have left. Buy-Till-You-Die models address this by estimating each customer's probability of being alive, a quantity called P(alive) and used in every major software tool for...
The development of online banking has brought about an increase in fraudulent operations, which is a major problem for banks. This study delves into the urgent requirement for interpretable, scalable, and top-notch fraud detection systems by using TabNet, an adaptable deep learning framework, on a Kaggle dataset consisting of actual...
Market-neutral portfolios aim to generate consistent returns while offsetting systematic market risk. Traditional approaches based on factor models or convex optimization often underperform during market regime shifts or when structural assumptions break down. We propose AlphaZeroBeta, a deep reinforcement learning framework designed...
Prediction markets are attracting growing attention as trading volumes rise and their practical relevance increases. To ensure efficient price discovery, liquidity provision becomes ever more important. Due to the binary settlement structure in prediction markets, optimal market making leads to an optimization problem that is...
We study equilibrium price formation in an incomplete financial market with a large population of agents, where stock prices are subject to a single-default event. Agents are assumed to be heterogeneous in their risk aversion and terminal liabilities, and maximize exponential utility of terminal net wealth. We first characterize each...
Automated market makers (AMMs) for prediction markets descend from market scoring rules, where a mechanism operator subsidizes a market to aggregate beliefs about uncertain events. The existing literature has focused on bounding the total worst-case loss to the subsidizer, but has not addressed how that loss is distributed across...
We develop a continuous-time structural dynamic model to determine the exact insolvency regions of banks arising from the non-linear interaction between liquidity and credit risk. While existing literature predominantly treats these risks in isolation or via reduced-form specifications, we explicitly model the feedback loop where...
In this paper, we study a general continuous-time Principal-Agent (PA) problem, where the agent privately makes effort and consumption decisions over time under a contract with payment schemes both in continuous time and in lump sums. In particular, we allow the continuous payment process to be a controlled diffusion, which is...
This paper develops a theory of monetary risk measures on metric state spaces. We propose the space of Lipschitz functions vanishing at a reference state as a natural domain for financial positions. The associated Lipschitz-free space provides its canonical predual, linking anchored Lipschitz payoffs to transport-based dual variables...
An order-book market whose liquidity provision is anchored to a fundamental value carries a restoring force: the price mean-reverts to value and the book refills after a shock. We show this restoring force is a robust intrinsic stabiliser and identify it causally-dialling the anchor down removes the mean-reversion, and a...
This paper investigates second-order asymptotic expansions for the conditional higher moment (CoHM) coherent risk measure under a Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) dependence structure, capturing a weak contagion between a primary loss risk and a reference risk. Assuming that the primary risk belongs to the Fréchet, Weibull, or Gumbel...
Taiwan's central role in global semiconductor manufacturing exposes Taiwan-related ETFs to technology concentration, geopolitical uncertainty, and supply-chain disruptions, resulting in return distributions characterized by heavy tails, volatility clustering, and asymmetric responses to negative shocks. This paper analyzes thirty...
This paper investigates a multi-layer reinsurance chain within a stochastic differential game framework involving m competing insurers and n reinsurers. Specifically, Stackelberg differential games are employed to characterize the strategic interactions between reinsurance buyers and sellers at each layer of the chain. In addition, a...
Q-variance (so-called) posits a statistical relationship $\mathbf{E}(σ^2 | z) = σ_0^2 + \tfrac{1}{2}z^2$ between an asset's volatility $σ^2$, as observed in a time interval $T$, and its (suitably scaled) return $z$ in the same interval. We here show that this relationship is {\em exactly equivalent} to to positing an Inverse Gamma...
Sectoral default dependence is usually described by a static correlation matrix, a static copula, or a small number of common factors. Such representations, when specified separately at each observation horizon, do not by themselves explain why the effective dependence observed in monthly credit data differs from that observed after...
This paper investigates a multi-layer reinsurance chain within a stochastic differential game framework involving m competing insurers and n reinsurers. Specifically, Stackelberg differential games are employed to characterize the strategic interactions between reinsurance buyers and sellers at each layer of the chain. In addition, a...
We develop a modeling framework for pricing bivariate interest rate exotic derivatives that maintains consistency across three interconnected markets: CMS spread options and the two underlying CMS option markets that define the spread. Our approach also enables the computation of no-arbitrage bounds for exotic derivatives given...
Foster and Viswanathan (1996) extend the discrete-time setting of Kyle (1985) to multiple informed traders who have partial information about the stock's terminal dividend. We resolve two long-standing open problems in this literature. First, we prove that an equilibrium exists in the setting of Foster and Viswanathan (1996). Second,...
In this paper, we propose a novel asymptotic fractional-order stochastic dominance rule for ranking prospects over a sufficiently long investment horizon. The new rule formulates the consensus of decision makers whose relative risk aversion has a negative lower bound. Under the assumption that returns are lognormally distributed, we...
The deep hedging framework of Buehler et al. (2019) trains a neural network policy, via Monte Carlo simulation of price paths and stochastic gradient descent, to minimize a risk measure applied to the terminal hedging error. In a recent stream of papers, my coauthors and I have described this technique as reinforcement learning (RL)....
This paper introduces a dynamic portfolio optimization framework for large institutional investors using Scientific Physics-Informed Reinforcement Learning (SciPhyRL). Formulated in continuous time over an extended state space that includes explicit cumulative costs, the approach leverages offline historical data to learn optimal,...
We extend the limited participation model in Basak and Cuoco (1998) to allow for traders with different time-preference coefficients but identical constant relative risk-aversion coefficients. Our main result gives parameter restrictions which ensure the existence of a Radner equilibrium. As an application, we give further parameter...