arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 5, 2026 — 07:19:41 EST
The application of machine learning to financial prediction has accelerated dramatically, yet the conditions under which complex models outperform simple alternatives remain poorly understood. This paper investigates whether advanced signal processing and deep learning techniques can extract predictive value from investor order flows...
Universal basic income (UBI) is a tax scheme that uniformly redistributes aggregate income amongst the entire population of an economy. We prove the existence of an equilibrium in a model that implements universal basic income. The economic agents choose the proportion of their time to work and earn wages that can be used towards...
This paper presents a meta-learning framework for credit risk assessment of Italian Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) that explicitly addresses the temporal misalignment of credit scoring models. The approach aligns financial statement reference dates with evaluation dates, mitigating bias arising from publication delays and...
A new wave of work on covariance cleaning and nonlinear shrinkage has delivered asymptotically optimal analytical solutions for large covariance matrices. The same framework has been generalized to empirical cross-covariance matrices, whose singular value decomposition identifies canonical comovement modes between two asset sets, with...
We estimate risk premia in the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns using the Giglio-Xiu (2021) three-pass approach, allowing for omitted latent factors alongside observed stock-market and crypto-market factors. Using weekly data on a broad universe of large cryptocurrencies, we find that crypto expected returns load on both...
Outstanding claim liabilities are revised repeatedly as claims develop, yet most modern reserving models are trained as one-shot predictors and typically learn only from settled claims. We formulate individual claims reserving as a claim-level Markov decision process in which an agent sequentially updates outstanding claim liability...
Portfolio optimization under cardinality constraints transforms the classical Markowitz mean-variance problem from a convex quadratic problem into an NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem. This paper introduces a novel approach using THRML (Thermodynamic HypergRaphical Model Library), a JAX-based library for building and sampling...
Our work focuses on deep learning (DL) portfolio optimization, tackling challenges in long-only, multi-asset strategies across market cycles. We propose training models with limited regime data using pre-training techniques and leveraging transformer architectures for state variable inclusion. Evaluating our approach against...
This paper explores option portfolio optimization when the underlying returns are skew-elliptical t-distributed. We use the variance and value at risk (VaR) to measure portfolio risk. The novelty of our work is the departure from the traditional normal returns setting, allowing investors to capture both heavy-tailed and skewed market...
We study portfolio choice when firm-level emissions intensities are measured with error. We introduce a scope-specific penalty operator that rescales asset payoffs as a smooth function of revenue-normalized emissions intensity. Under payoff homogeneity, unit-scale invariance, mixture linearity, and a curvature semigroup axiom, the...
While traditional equity factor investing relies heavily on slow-moving fundamental accounting metrics, these models frequently suffer from factor crowding and miss real-time, sentiment-driven market dislocations. This study explores how institutional investors can leverage a high-dimensional library of 191 short-term, trading-based...
Market integrity monitoring is difficult because suspicious price/volume behavior can arise from many benign mechanisms, while modern detection systems often rely on opaque models that are hard to audit and communicate. We present AIMM-X, an explainable monitoring pipeline that combines market microstructure-style signals derived from...
The integration of cryptocurrencies into institutional portfolios necessitates the adoption of robust risk modeling frameworks. This study is a part of a series of subsequent works to fine-tune model risk analysis for cryptocurrencies. Through this first research work, we establish a foundational benchmark by applying the traditional...
Most empirical microstructure research assumes that order flow--return parameters are constant, yet these relationships shift substantially across market regimes. Combining adaptive Kalman filtering, Markov-switching regime identification, and asymmetric response estimation, we characterize regime-dependent investor behavior in the...
Multimodal large language models are playing an increasingly significant role in empowering the financial domain, however, the challenges they face, such as multimodal and high-density information and cross-modal multi-hop reasoning, go beyond the evaluation scope of existing multimodal benchmarks. To address this gap, we propose...
This paper develops a structural framework for characterizing the informational feasibility of financial markets under heterogeneous institutional and geopolitical conditions. Departing from the assumption of uniform and time-invariant market efficiency, adaptive efficiency is conceptualized as a localized and state-dependent property...
We propose DeePM (Deep Portfolio Manager), a structured deep-learning macro portfolio manager trained end-to-end to maximize a robust, risk-adjusted utility. DeePM addresses three fundamental challenges in financial learning: (1) it resolves the asynchronous "ragged filtration" problem via a Directed Delay (Causal Sieve) mechanism...
The classical mean-variance framework characterizes portfolio risk solely through return variance and the covariance matrix, implicitly assuming that all relevant sources of risk are captured by second moments. In modern financial markets, however, shocks often propagate through complex networks of interconnections, giving rise to...
A forecasting model compresses its predictors into an estimate of a conditional mean, and the systematic structure that estimate omits survives in the second moment of its forecast errors. Accuracy comparisons do not measure this structure, and variance-based extraction does not recover the part of it that a given decision bears. In...
This paper studies forward-looking stock-stock correlation forecasting for S\&P 500 constituents and evaluates whether learned correlation forecasts can improve graph-based clustering used in basket trading strategies. We cast 10-day ahead correlation prediction in Fisher-z space and train a Temporal-Heterogeneous Graph Neural Network...
How information transmits through prices -- and why this transmission breaks down -- remains poorly understood. We combine regularized deconvolution with Hawkes process analysis to study the impulse response structure of investor flows in the Korean equity market (January 2020 -- February 2025). Three findings emerge: foreign and...
This paper re-examines the empirical Phillips curve (PC) model and its usefulness in the context of medium-term inflation forecasting. A latent variable Phillips curve hypothesis is formulated and tested using 3,968 randomly generated factor combinations. Evidence from US core PCE inflation between Q1 1983 and Q1 2025 suggests that...
We study approximation limits of single-hidden-layer neural networks with analytic activation functions under global coefficient constraints. Under uniform $\ell^1$ bounds, or more generally sub-exponential growth of the coefficients, we show that such networks generate model classes with strong quantitative regularity, leading to...
We identify the measurable absorbing obstruction to uniqueness of invariant probability measures for a Markov kernel. Ordinary absorbing decompositions obstruct global irreducibility and recurrence, but not necessarily uniqueness: an absorbing component may have full mass for no invariant probability. We prove that a Markov kernel...
Optimal Order Execution is a well-established problem in finance that pertains to the flawless execution of a trade (buy or sell) for a given volume within a specified time frame. This problem revolves around optimizing returns while minimizing risk, yet recent research predominantly focuses on addressing one aspect of this challenge....