arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 5, 2026 — 11:08:43 EST
We propose a robust barycenter for distribution-valued data by incorporating the Huber loss directly into the optimal transport cost. In contrast to metric-space Huber means, which apply the Huber loss to the Wasserstein distance after optimization, our construction acts on individual transport displacements, preserving quadratic...
Urban decarbonization often raises the cost of travel, yet which neighbourhoods can adapt remains largely invisible under normal conditions. We leverage the 2026 US-Iran oil shock as a natural experiment, applying a hierarchical panel regression discontinuity design to 1.7 trillion point-of-interest visits across 122,000...
We provide an estimator for the perturbed utility route choice (PURC) model that works with data at the level of individual trips. The estimator is a nested fixed-point algorithm that combines an upper bias-corrected linear regression problem with a lower individual-level perturbed utility maximization problem. We establish the...
Studies of association-football forecasting routinely report three-way accuracy in the low fifties and present it as competitive with the betting market. Accuracy against a uniform benchmark answers the wrong question; the question worth asking is whether a model carries information a margin-free closing price has not already...
A predictive model can fit its data even when its information set is insufficient; fit alone cannot establish sufficiency. This Perspective introduces Level II-A, a new design-based inference framework to test this distinction, illustrated in anticipatory EEG using contingent negative variation. A pre-event endpoint is committed...
Bayesian model selection couples a discrete model indicator with a model-specific continuous parameter space. We introduce structured dimension-matched variational transdimensional inference (SM-VTI) for finite enumerable model spaces. A rooted construction graph expresses a model as a sequence of local stop/child decisions. Each...
Covariate-adaptive randomization procedures are widely used in clinical trials to improve covariate balance. In modern applications, experimenters often have access to many covariates, motivating the need for a theory of covariate-adaptive randomization procedures with a diverging number of covariates. In this paper, we study the...
In this article, we explore a new paradigm for statistical inference. The approach centers around the point estimate based on observed data, simulating replicates using the estimate as the truth to produce clones of the estimate, with inference deriving from the clone distribution. It avoids prospective finite-dimensional model...
Early-phase clinical trials for dose selection typically enrol few patients and aim to identify doses that are both safe and promising for further study. While traditional approaches identify the maximum tolerated dose, modern trials for targeted therapies often seek the optimal biological dose, defined as the lowest dose achieving...
Given a dataset where a portion of the samples are contaminated, our goal is to recover the underlying clean population distribution. To this end, we propose Wasserstein Filtering (WF), a novel sample selection framework that discards a fraction of suspicious samples and estimates the target distribution using the empirical measure of...
Cardiac fibrosis reduces electrical conductivity and is a leading cause of arrhythmia. Arrhythmic waves typically rotate around non-conducting fibrotic patches, so the geometry and topology of these patches (spatially isolated regions of fibrotic tissue within the heart muscle) play an important role in arrhythmia dynamics. Despite...
This study develops a weighted framework for measuring the discrepancy between two nonnegative lifetime distributions through cumulative past extropy. We propose two measures, referred to as the weighted cumulative past extropy inaccuracy (WCPEI) and the weighted cumulative past extropy Kullback-Leibler divergence (WCPED). The...
We revisit the problem of learning predictors robust to adversarial examples at test-time. We prove that VC classes are adversarially robustly learnable with sample complexity linear in the VC dimension $d$, providing an exponential improvement over the previous upper bound of Montasser, Hanneke, and Srebro (2019). Remarkably, this...
Neural networks increasingly combine data across populations, time periods, and operating conditions to improve generalization. This raises a reliability question: whether a model refitted on pooled data preserves an action ordering supported by both sources. Case-Based Decision Theory (CBDT) formalizes this requirement through its...
Deep generative models (DGMs) are widely used for complex high-dimensional data and increasingly applied to spatial and spatio-temporal modeling. Their generated samples implicitly represent the learned data distribution and associated uncertainty. However, for real-world data, assessing whether DGMs have learned the underlying...
Estimating causal effects of linguistic properties from observational text is difficult because the same document can contain both the treatment of interest and the non-treatment textual attributes needed for adjustment. Existing approaches often learn representations from the full text to capture latent confounding, but when...
Combining electronic health record (EHR) data from multiple institutions is a valuable strategy for conducting post-market safety surveillance of medical products, but privacy concerns limit sharing individual-level data. We develop a novel federated learning (FL) method for multi-site post-market safety surveillance of medical...
In modern Bayesian computation and parametric estimation, the marginal likelihood, serving as the denominator P(D) in Bayes' Theorem, is routinely bypassed via unnormalized proportionality relations. Even within specialized model-selection frameworks where it is explicitly evaluated to compute Bayes Factors, the denominator is treated...
Regression estimates from observational data can depend on specification under multicollinearity, while sequential sums of squares (SS) depend on term order. We introduce Retrospective Orthogonal Design (ROD), which reconstructs conditional mean surfaces on a probability-balanced lattice. ROD preserves observed cell means, completes...
This article presents a statistical learning framework for studying the evolution of pediatric mental health-related emergency department (MHED) visit patterns across the pre-, during-, and post-COVID-19 pandemic periods using population-based administrative health records. The MHED records are formulated as zero-truncated recurrent...
The Dirichlet process (DP) is the most common bayesian nonparametric prior, however, its properties as sampling distribution have not been studied nor inference on its parameters. Here we use the DP as a data generating model and make bayesian inference on its centering measure and precision parameter. We illustrate with a sequence of...
Meta-analyzing natural indirect effect estimates from multiple studies is increas- ingly used to synthesize evidence on causal pathways of interest. However, stan- dard mediation meta-analysis approaches are typically based on structural equation modeling, which fails to account for mediator-outcome confounding, is not read- ily...
Synthetic control (SC) matches a treated unit's pre-treatment trajectory to a weighted combination of donor units. We study Spectral SC, which instead matches the treated unit in coordinates defined by the leading temporal singular vectors of the donor panel, and a hybrid estimator that places separately tunable weight on retained and...
Causal inference is often focused on average effects, which can hide important aspects of the effect distributions. Here we consider the entire posterior effects distribution by estimating full counterfactual outcome distributions. We propose a methodology for inference on counterfactual distributions which builds upon the martingale...
Understanding differences in microbial community structure is critical for uncovering risk factors and mechanisms underlying diseases such as colorectal cancer and preterm birth. Microbiome data present unique statistical challenges because they are compositional in nature, violating assumptions of many classical inference procedures....