arXiv preprints from January 1, 2026 through September 5, 2026 — 05:21:11 EST
Exponential random graph models (ERGMs) describe dependence among network ties, but inference becomes difficult when the likelihood is intractable and candidate network statistics are strongly correlated. We introduce BERGM Elastic Net, an adaptive empirical-Bayes approach that combines lasso shrinkage with ridge stabilization in a...
Modern medical research, such as dose-finding studies, seamless trials, and shared control designs, often involves comparing multiple treatments simultaneously. Despite its wide applications, most research focuses on continuous endpoints, leaving the inference for general outcome types in high demand. In this article, we propose a new...
\begin{quote} {\bf\em Abstract\/}. ~A variety of models for insurance and other types of losses are special cases of the {\em log-location-scale\/} family, with the lognormal and Pareto-$I$ distributions being the most prominent examples. The latter also serves as a primary example of infinite-mean models that often present challenges...
Control variables are widely used in statistical modelling to account for omitted variable bias of known confounders. However, they have largely been underexplored in deep learning. This is surprising, given that deep learning models encode image-inferable covariates, such as demographic variables, into their predictions when these...
Probabilistic models of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) with latent variables impose equality constraints on the observed data distribution beyond ordinary conditional independencies. These so-called Verma constraints arise in nested Markov models associated with Acyclic Directed Mixed Graphs, the latent projection of latent-variable...
The STAR (Student-Teacher Achievement Ratio) experiment (1985, Tennessee, USA) is a landmark hierarchical dataset designed to assess the impact of class size on student outcomes, with observations nested within classes. To encode class-level interventions in such hierarchical settings, we develop a complete, scalable, open-source...
We introduce a novel latent space network model for analyzing multivariate time series of neural spike-train data. The methodology is motivated by an experimental study in mice, where neuronal responses were collected under a sequence of visual discrimination tasks. We adopt a latent variable framework to model the firing rates of...
Learning operators from sequentially collected data arises in adaptive experimental design, Bayesian optimization, and dynamical-system modelling, where observations may be dependent, and future inputs or sensing operators may depend on preceding data. We derive time-uniform self-normalized concentration bounds for stochastic...
Envelope methods improve estimation efficiency in multivariate analysis by isolating low-dimensional structures that contain all the information material to the parameter of interest. In multivariate linear regression with random predictors, predictor envelope models achieve this goal by removing variation in the predictors that is...
Cox regression with Lasso penalization is widely used for variable selection in time-to-event data, but reliable coefficient inference after selection remains difficult. We investigate bootstrap inference for the debiased Cox estimator after Cox Lasso selection. Two score-based procedures are considered: a wild bootstrap using...
Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models provide a flexible framework for partitioning complex prediction problems into simpler local learning tasks through an input-dependent gating mechanism. Existing interpretable MoE approaches, such as Mixture of Decision Trees (MoDT), achieve transparency by employing homogeneous decision-tree experts,...
Numerous methods have been developed to quantify feature attributions in individual predictions for tree ensembles. However, many applications require global measures of feature contributions to overall model performance. Although local attribution scores can be aggregated to characterize feature importance, such summaries do not...
Individualized treatment rules (ITRs) map baseline characteristics to treatment recommendations, with the optimal ITR maximizing expected reward or policy welfare. Indirect methods may require restrictive modeling assumptions, whereas direct methods can be sensitive to nuisance estimation error and limited overlap. We propose...
Controlled-experiment Using Pre-Experiment Data (CUPED) reduces the variance of the treatment effect estimator in online experiments by adjusting the in-experiment outcome metric using its lagged pre-experiment value. This method can be strengthened by enriching its covariate set while keeping it automatable and guarding against...
Modified treatment policies (MTPs) are interventions based on each individual's natural treatment value. We study mean outcomes under MTPs for continuous treatments, including exposure mixtures. Positivity is the standard sufficient condition for identifying these mean outcomes without extrapolation: policy-generated values remain...
Credit risk models increasingly need to combine predictive accuracy with transparent explanations and auditable fairness constraints. Logistic regression remains attractive because its coefficients are easy to interpret, but it can miss nonlinear structure. Flexible models can improve prediction, but their explanations are often...
Generative models are commonly ranked by Fréchet Inception Distance (FID) and Kernel Inception Distance (KID), yet FID's first-two-moment summary can miss distributional differences, and a reported scalar gap alone is not a calibrated test against sampling variation. FID's moment restriction has concrete consequences: on ImageNet,...
Probability density functions are commonly estimated through preliminary smoothing or aggregation procedures, e.g., histograms or kernel density estimation, before subsequent functional representation and functional data analyses. Such a two-stage approach can lead to additional approximation bias and weaken the direct connection...
Timely risk classification is essential in many clinical monitoring settings, where decisions must balance the benefit of classifying patients early for subsequent intervention against the value of observing additional data. Yet most existing statistical and machine-learning methods are designed for fully observed trajectories and...
Policies that require organizations to use new systems, such as prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMPs), are often implemented in phases, with an initial period of voluntary access followed by mandated compliance. This allows the policy intervention to be adopted before compliance is required (early adoption), causing outcomes...
This study presents a reproducible framework combining Fourier and wavelet analysis to examine the seasonality of daily inflows at three sites on the Senegal River (Bafing Makana, Felou, Gouina), based on 65,631 daily observations spanning nearly 60 years (1961-2020). Using harmonic regression, Welch spectral analysis, stationary...
Randomized trials support causal inference, but differences between trial and target populations can limit the transportability of treatment effects to real-world settings. Many existing approaches model the propensity of trial participation and can therefore be sensitive to model misspecification and weak overlap of the covariate...
Recent recommendations in statistics and data science education emphasize goals that extend beyond content mastery, including statistical literacy, evidence-based decision-making, communication, ethics, responsible use of data, and civic responsibility. We argue these goals can all be understood through a common lens: helping students...
One implicit DDIM inversion step is the cheapest probe of whether a pretrained diffusion model encodes local manifold geometry. It is the stationarity condition of an explicit potential, $x-G(x)=\nablaΨ_t(x)$, strongly convex at the Bayes limit with modulus exactly $e^{-h_t}$ for the step's log-SNR gap $h_t$ $-$ for every data law,...
Data increasingly arrive as collections of curves - a voice recording, a growth trajectory, a day of sensor readings - where each observation is a whole function rather than a single number. The usual question asked of such data is how the average curve differs from one group to the next. But the average is only half the picture: two...